Be happy with what you have

There seems to be a kind of schizophrenia affecting some Irish trainers lately. First connections of Sizing Europe, one of the best two milers seen for the past few years make two separate attempts to turn him into a three miler with predictable results then Paul Nolan seems intent on running the top class 2 1/2 miler Noble Prince repeatedly over 2 miles, missing an eminently winnable race in Clonmel then stating the 2 miler at Leopardstown to be the horse's next target.
Finally today Rubi Light gives a bold aggressive performance over 2 1/2 in the John Durkan and Robbie Hennessy wants to try him over three at Christmas on what is likely to be heavy ground at Leopardstown in the Lexus.If you watch today's race back take a look at where dour stayer Joncol is three out and where he finishes and tell me Rubi Light will improve for another half mile. He may well stay in time but next year would be time enough after winning a Ryanair first. Am I talking my book? You betcha.
My basic point? If you have a horse who is performing at the top level under its optimum conditions, why try and make it into something it's not? And if you try once and fail, take the hint!

Aintree Foxhunters

5 pm
I thought it would be interesting to detail the process that goes into finding a bet in a race like this. This afternoon (Wednesday) after getting the declarations I went through the field and made the following notes on the likely contenders and priced them up:
Baby Run bold jumping front-running style ideal. Negative that had a hard race at Chelt and might have been beginning to tire when fell, also previously fell here- likely to be put in short, would oppose at 5/1 or less.
Fort View exciting youngster has been held up slight negative, jockey a plus query enough experience for this- would consider win only at 10/1+ Heron's Well front-runner big plus, going OK when fell Chelt drop back in trip a positive fences an unknown who rides? owner's son usually replacement might be a positive. anything above 8/1 interesting.
Ice Tea bold jumping front runner trip a possible negative as stays much further jockey OK, 10/1+ of interest.
Kilty Storm races prom, good pilot, 2nd Aintree/Punch 2010, won 2 pts this ssn- possibly not quite classy enough? 14/1+ of some interest. Massini Man good seq in Hun Chases unpl Kim Muir, races prom- jumping a big worry 20/1+ wouldn't back.
Moncadou second last yr (backed him) good pilot, coming slowly to hand, chance 14/1+ would interest.
Offshore Account led the 09 National a long way jumping well fancied Topham 2010 faded disappointingly modest form since, new stable- hard to fancy 25/1+

Silver Adonis last yrs winner mod form sice tho going OK when fell Kempton small chance 20/1
Turko won well Newbury, some of the best form on offer, however didn't seem to enjoy this in 08 National. If takes to it this time big chance, big if. 8/1 of interest but better in-running play if jumps the first few well.
Van Ness 4th last yr mod pointing form this- small chance 25/1. I will edit this post later when I see prices and detail any bets then made.

9pm Most bookmakers have priced the race and I have a fairly clear idea what I want to do. This is the frustrating period for me in the past few years since almost all my online accounts (and the wife's and the best friends!) were restricted or closed down. Now I can only look at prices overnight and hope they survive to shop time. Heron's Well looks well overpriced at 14/1 with Victor Chandler but I have no chance of getting that. 12/1 with Paddy Power will do and I'll be in a shop early to try and get that each way. Meantime all I can do is have a nibble on Betfair win only. When I reviewed the Foxhunter tape he didn't actually make a mistake, merely stumbled after the feance and his rider fell off. He galloped on and "won" the race so will probably have had a nicer experience than the favourite. Hopefully someone will get yer man to ride a bit longer tomorrow and try and stay on board. I will also back Ice Tea each way at Paddy Power's 12/1 if I can get it. He looks sure to be up in the van and 1/4 first 4 places is a gift. I may have a smaller Betfair tickle on Fort View who trades around 18/1.

10.30am
Off work today so doing my own betting. On days when I'm at work I have three or four people who put on for me in the shops. First stop this morning was Paddy Power to get 12/1 Heron's Well (2 pts each way) and 12/1 Ice Tea (1 pt each way).

4.45 pmOne selection fell, the other brought down- the joys of punting over the National fences. Repeat the above a few hundred times and you have a year in the life of a punter!

Dubai Golden Shaheen Meydan Saturday.

I started looking at this race after James Knight tweeted that he had backed Euroears at 5/1 as he's a good judge. As I went through it however I was struck by the amount of pace in the field: Rocket Man, Charlie's Moment, Dim Sum, Euroears and Kinsale King all want to lead or sit very handy and I can easily see the pace collapsing late. If it does a closer could well pick up the pieces and Green Birdie could be the one to benefit. At 20/1 tonight he's definitely overpriced to place and if getting a good tow here he could even cause a shock- he's beaten the favourite before in a Grade 1. 1.5 pts each way Green Birdie 20/1 Paddy Power 1/4 123. 4th 16/1 -3 pts.

County Hurdle Friday

My shortlist here is
Secret Dancer (backed at 22/1 Corals)
Final Approach (12/1 Ladbrokes)
Ciceron (should get 25/1 in the morning).

Final Approach won 10/1, others unplaced.

Byrne Group Plate Thursday

One that stands out here is Nigel Twiston-Davies Crescent Island who has good course form having been third in last year's Jewson. Three miles on softish ground was not his bag at Kempton and these conditions will suit much better. The 20/1 available tonight is decent value each way.

Non-runner.

Kim Muir Thursday

One that caught my eye straight away this evening was Phillip Hobbs' Mostly Bob. He was an early faller in the Racing Post Chase but it wasn't really his fault as he collided with another runner. Conditions here will suit really well and 16/1 should be taken each way. PU 12/1.

Pertemps Final Thursday

I went early on this race backing three horses before shop closing time tonight. The first is a big price but after Henry De Bromhead's last two days I wouldn't want to be laying too much 33/1 each way about his Quieros Bleu. He ran in the Leopardstown qualifier staying on steadily from the back then had a sighter for this over an inadequate 2 miles at Naas. He will much prefer the good ground here and has a definite chance. I had Rivage D'Or down as a bit of a rogue until he won decisively at Naas the last day and I've lost count of the number of similar nearly horses who improve massively after a confidence-boosting win. I took 12/1 tonight with Hills. Finally David Pipe's plot horse Chartreux can only get shorter and is worth backing at tonight's 7/1. 5th 33/1, unpl 10/1, unpl 6/1.

Festival Bumper Wednesday

I haven't had much luck here in the past few years since the heady days of Joe Cullen and Pizarro, but I can pass on a small word for Charles O'Brien's Double Double who was put away for this after a win on fast ground at Leopardstown last May. 25/1 is worth a nibble.
unpl 20/1.

National Hunt Novice Chase Wednesday

Not the same idiosyncratic contest since the conditions were changed, this is now a bog-standard novice chase. One persuasive statistic is that the high-rated horses to run here (140+) have all been well stuffed- could be that sheer staying power overcomes class at this trip. That encourages me to take on Alfa Beat and Chicago Grey here. Jonjo O'Neill has a blinding record here, probably because he's an expert at training slow horses and his Aberdale is worth support at 12/1.
PU 10/1.

Coral Cup Wednesday

I've had good memories of this race down the years none better than when I was the only punter on the racecourse cheering home Martin Pipe's Ilnamar who was 80/1 on the Tote. That great win popped into my head last night when I was looking at a horse called Lord Ragnar of Nicky Hendersons. The common theme is that both had been novice chasing, which may have helped protect a decent handicap mark over hurdles. He has course form here too and can be backed at 66/1 each way. Another dart will be thrown at Orsippus at 40/1 each way. He's been running OK over 2 miles including in the County last year looking as if this trip is what he wants. Venetia Williams has previous here with Idole First and her Lightning Strike is a fascinating runner- off 2 years since showing some classy novice chasing form he was also very decent over hurdles and the handicapper has given him a great chance. 25/1 is decent value each way. unpl 50/1, 3rd 33/1, unpl 14/1.

Grand Annual Handicap Chase Friday

The panel at the Betfair preview made some interesting observations on this race. French Opera and Tchicos Polos don't run, so the weights are going to go up. Most years you are looking for a horse near the bottom of the weights which is unexposed. Such an animal is Brendan Powell's Shoreacres who I backed for this race last year before he was a late withdrawal. This looks to be the long term target again this year as he's only had one run since, winning a small novice chase easily at Taunton. He has Festival form having finished fourth in Cousin Vinny's Bumper and could be very well treated- Thanks For That who he may well have beaten off levels in his pre-Cheltenham prep last year now has to give him 7lbs and is the favourite here. 12/1 with William Hills should be taken. 17/3/11 Another that interests me tonight is Alan King's novice Mister Stickler. I'll be taking some 33/1 in the morning each way. unpl 6/1, unpl 25/1.

Ryanair Chase Thursday

The absence of Tranquil Sea and now probably Somersby (thank God) are further blows to this race's credibility as a Grade 1. It is now shaping up as the weakest race so designated at the Festival, further grist to the mill of those (myself included) who think that all this race does is weaken the Champion Chase and the Gold Cup. Poquelin is a solid favourite with excellent course form- the only thing wrong with him is his price. Kalahari King too has some excellent Festival efforts but always seems to come up a little short and is now a 9yo- he could win but the price doesn't excite. Alberta's Run won this last year but his current form is awful- he'd have been an interesting outsider at a double-figure price but that much forgiveness at 7/1 isn't for me. I've taken a complete flyer tonight on a horse at 40/1- Hey Big Spender. He has good course and distance form including when running very well in the Jewson (was a handicap last year) before falling. He won impressively at Warwick off top weight two starts ago then ran fourth in the Racing Post Chase at Kempton where he got mullered at the very first fence and did well to finish as close as he did. He's still on the improve and 10/1 to place looks big to me in a race that could cut up badly. unpl 18/1.

Triumph Hurdle Friday

This looks very trappy with a lot of unexposed horses with potential and a dearth of solid form- it looks a weak renewal at this stage. I don't have a strong view but would be against the Irish horses as the 4yos here have looked a poor bunch- Unaccompanied is the best of them but that might not be worth much. Two of the leading fancies here flopped in bad ground at Chepstow and whereas Sam Winner hasn't run since Smad Place had an easy victory at Wincanton to set him up for this- I like my Cheltenham bets to be coming in on a high. 17/3/11 I could do with the forecast rain materialising for Smad Place. If it does I'll also be looking seriously at Venetia William's Houblon des Obeaux. There is plenty of 20/1 around tonight. unpl 11/1, unpl 22/1.

RSA Chase Wednesday

Time For Rupert or time for a shock? The favourite boasts quality hurdles and track form and is an excellent jumper, but at 5/2 I have to be against him. I thought it was surprising that his price didn't budge after he had to miss his January target with a bad scope- a significant negative in my book. Two runs over fences has historically not been enough for the hurly-burly of this race and if there's any chink in his fitness he won't get home. This is a race I usually play on the day looking for 2 or 3 to back at big prices each way but I have had one bet already in Magnanimity each way at 20/1. He beat Jessie's Dream at Leopardstown by basically outjumping and outstaying him yet trades at 2 1/2 times the price. He's just the sort of dour staying type that often runs well here and his astute trainer excels with staying chasers. 16/3/11 I am adding Boston's Angel each way this morning at 14/1. Faster ground is no problem here and I love Jessie Harrington 's staying chasers. 4th 16/1, Won 16/1

Supreme Novice Hurdle Tuesday

The first thing to say about this race is to check out the myriad of offers available: Paddy Power will refund all losing bets if Cue Card wins. Bambury bookmakers will pay you as a winner if you finish second to Cue Card. Betfair will add 25% to any winnings you make backing, laying or trading the race on the day. Cue Card sets a very high standard here even though his last piece of form has taken some knocks since. Still, finishing third in open company to Menorah is a quality line of form which will have him comfortably top-rated here. When you look back at his demolition job of the bumper field last year it's hard not to conclude that he's going to take some beating. Negatives would be that he's inclined to run a bit free, but this should be run at a good gallop especially if Magen's Star runs, and the fact that he hasn't been seen since that slightly disappointing effort in December. I have laid him on Betfair at 9/4 as he's another favourite I think will drift on the day as the bookies try to get off to a flyer remembering how they got the last two bumper winners (Cousin Vinny and Dunguib) beaten. The difference between them and this horse is that this fella can jump. I will make him a decent winner for me by the off if he ever touches 3/1 or better, which I think he will. The aforementioned Magen's Star isn't definitely confirmed here as they are waiting to see what the ground is like but I've taken a bit of 28/1 with Paddy Power with the concession above as I can see them letting her go in front and she might just be hard to catch- definitely another trading opportunity in-running on Betfair. Of the two Nicky Henderson runners I much prefer Sprinter Sacre but I seem to be in a minority as the horse is friendless in the market in the past week. He may be a doubtful runner but I'll be backing him at some stage each way, probably again with Paddy Power- he seriously impressed me at Ascot the last day and I don't see him as short of pace. Magen's Star unpl 14/1, Sprinter Sacre 3rd 11/1.

David Nicholson Mares Hurdle Tuesday

I put up Sparky May at 12/1 after her win at Ascot on the Betfair thread (well worth logging into every few days- 150 points profit last Flat season, 90 so far this Jumps). She's been steadily backed since as it becomes evident that this race lacks any real strength in depth. Personally I wouldn't be playing now at 9/2 but she does look the most likely danger to the favourite Quevega who is going for 3 in a row here. The most impressive thing about her Ascot win over 3 miles was that she didn't settle at all yet still found plenty up the straight. A faster pace at this trip should be right up her street. I put up a lumpy lay of Quevega at evens on Betfair last night which was taken. I can't see her starting that short once the on course bookies get stuck into her on the day- she's a favourite they have to take on having not been seen in public since last season. I expect to be able to get at least 6/4 at some stage. 14/3/11 My Twiston mole tells me that l'Accordioniste is by far the best of theirs and that her last run can be ignored as she was a sick horse. I have added a bit each way at Paddy Power's 10/1 today. Sparky May 2nd 4/1, l'Accordioniste unpl 8/1.

Neptune Novice Hurdle Wednesday

This is written with regret, as it will look like more aftertiming, but I'm all over So Young for this like a bad suit having put him up on the Betfair thread after his Punchestown win at 12/1. I went in again at 8/1 and it's no surprise to me that he now disputes favouritism. Two things about that win really grabbed me- his jumping, which was superb (if you watch the replay look how clever he is when meeting the second last on a short stride) and the way he instantly quickened when Paul Townend gave him the office at the last. I know he was beating trees but if this isn't a serious horse I'll be disappointed- he could be the next Mikael d'Haguenet. I'm not plannning to get further invloved until the day here but will update if I do. 3rd 2/1.

Gold Cup Friday

The field for this gets smaller every day. Since the start of the season we've lost Burton Port (ouch) Diamond Harry, Punchestowns, Pride Of Dulcote and Weapons Amnesty amongst others which just proves how delicate these top staying chasers are and the fabulous job Paul Nicholls has done keeping Kauto and Denman on the road for another year. For all that I can't have either of those magnificent 11 year olds this time around as Father Time must surely catch up with them soon. Long Run looked fantastic when winning the King George at Kempton but has disappointed in two visits to Cheltenham. His breeder was interviewed in the Racing Post a few weeks ago and opined that he needed soft ground- an interesting take on him. Add in his inexperienced jockey and if I were a bookie I'd go down the page on him at 5/1. Of the front ones in the market, Imperial Commander is the strongest as he'll turn up here under his ideal conditions- that is at Cheltenham, fresh. He must go close and I may well be tempted to back him if I see anything close to 4/1. The only bet (apart from the ill-fated Burton Port wager) I have struck is on Tidal Bay at 40/1, more because I felt that 10/1 about him to place was huge than because I really think he can win. If he doesn't get too detached I can easily see him staying on up the hill past beaten horses. I was close to backing Kempes for this after he won the Hennessy but the stats for horses who started life on the Flat in the Gold Cup are dire- I just wonder if he'll get the extra 2 furlongs on a stiff track. If he does he's a danger to all. What A Friend is a similar type to Tidal Bay in that he looks to be keeping a bit for himself but he interests me for a place- I'll be watching the specials (spreads and place only markets) on the day and will definitely have a small interest. Another one I'd consider for a bet closer to the day is Pandorama. For me he's totally ground dependent though and only if it were looking like proper soft ground would I chance him- on anything faster it could be a repeat of Newbury when he couldn't go the gallop on fastish ground and was forced into mistakes. I don't think Midnight Chase is good enough. By the way if there are some who think there's a bit of aftertiming going on here you're probably right, but as I've said before all my bets are posted "live" once done on the antepost National Hunt thread on Betfair here: http://community.betfair.com/horse_antepost/go/thread/view/94098/25457385/ANTEPOST_NATIONAL_HUNT_BIG_RACE_THREAD_2010111630?pg=42 Tidal Bay unpl 16/1, What A Friend 4th 25/1.

Foxhunter Chase Friday

The chance for the amateurs to ride over the same course where history has just been made in the Gold Cup half an hour before, and one of the biggest trophies in racing. Baby Run showed guts to make all last year and has returned in good form winning twice on the racecourse under the latest of the Twiston-Davies clan. They have every chance of a repeat and I backed him after his latest win at 4/1. If you see close to that again he is still value. A longer shot I like is the young mare Sericina. She fell last year but is a year older and wiser and has continued to carry all before her on the pointing field. I took some 16/1 win only, as a fall is the biggest danger to a good run. On the Fringe would be a huge danger but is not certain to travel. Update 9/3/11 On The Fringe is now stated to be a runner. I have added him each way at 8/1 with Hills today NRNB. Baby Run fell 3/1, Sericina PU 20/1, On The Fringe 4th 3/1.

Jewson Novice Chase Thursday

This is a new 2 1/2 mile novice conditions chase specially designed to weaken both the Arkle and the RSA and totally confuse ante post betting on the novice chases. The horse I have liked for this for a long time is Paul Nolan's Noble Prince. I've had a good bet at 10/1 but still consider him value at the current 7/1. For me he's a much better horse at 2 1/2 miles than he is at the 2 miles he's been running over this winter. All his best hurdles form is at that trip and he seems to get a bit outpaced at a crucial stage at the highest level over 2 miles. He ran well in a County Hurdle despite being hampered and must go well here. He will have a tough rival though in the Hobbs horse Wishful Thinking who was impressive in a handicap over the course last time. 17/3/11 I have added a small each way bet today on Radium at 33/1 who has previous Festival form and who might just be getting it together over fences. Noble Prince won 4/1 Radium 4th 33/1.

Centenary Novice Chase Tuesday

Another new race to further dilute the quality at the ever-expanding festival, but that opinion doesn't mean I can't try and back the winner. If you didn't know, this is the dumbed-down version of the Jewson, but is now restricted to those rated 140 and below to stop pulling runners from the new Jewson, which is now a conditions race. Confused? I thought so. Anyway as a changed version of a newish race the trends won't be that strong but I'll be looking for a horse with Festival form not too exposed over fences. Such an animal is Tullamore Dew who was second in the Coral Cup last year but has been plying his fencing trade around the gaffs presumably to keep his mark down for a tilt at something like this. I've taken some 16/1 with a run and suggest you do likewise if you see it. 3rd 13/2.

Spinal Research Handicap Chase Tuesday

Formerly the William Hill I've had some good success here down the years as there are some quite strong patterns which seem to repeat more often than not. It is very hard to carry a big weight here so I'll be concentrating on those rated 143 and below. The two I like at the moment are Pearlysteps and Reve de Sivola. Pearlysteps represents Henry Daly who has previous in this race and in the festival handicap chases generally. This horse was third to The Giant Bolster at Cheltenham last time out despite collecting most of the Prestbury Park fences and bringing them with him. That was over 2m5f, but this trip should allow him more time to get into a jumping rhythm and he's a strong stayer. I have no idea if he runs but if he does the 33/1 available with a run as I type will be far too big. Reve De Sivola is more obvious- he was second to Peddler's Cross at the Festival last year and has several nice bits of course form over fences since. I can forgive him a poor display last time as he just didn't take to the Sandown fences and if you can get any 16/1 with a run he's worth a bet. 10/3/11 Pearlysteps goes for the 4 mile chase, poor decision I think as that looks a very hot contest off levels- would have had a much better chance in this. Looking at the entries again at the 6 day stage I was surprised to see Ogee left in. He ran in the Grmthorpe Chase last weekend for which he was well fancied given his good record fresh but performed like a horse who needed that first run. He was a good third in this race last year and has previous form running well when brought back to the track quickly (it will be 10 days). I've backed him each way at 20/1 with my refunded Pearlysteps money. Reve de Sivola 3rd 9/1, Pearlysteps/Ogee NR, money back.

Arkle Chase Tuesday

The market for this is now fairly mature but I will give you my thoughts on the main contenders and tell you what I've done so far. Medermit was off my radar for this after his first couple of fencing efforts when he didn't convince at Aintree and he refused at Huntingdon. He's got back on track since however winning at Plumpton, just getting outstayed at Cheltenham over 2m5f and just lasting home over slightly shorter at Sandown, when I thought he was idling in front and always too good for Captain Chris. His jumping that day was much better and I backed him after that race for this at what looked a too-big 8/1. The current 3/1 makes no appeal but he's the most likely winner as the classiest of them over hurdles who has now learnt to jump. Finian's Rainbow is undefeated over fences but has looked anything but a natural in his three small-field wins. It was a horror show around Warwick the last day and he'll need to jump an awful lot better. Add to that the fact that he likes to lead, a major negative in this race and the fact that he's come up short at the top level over hurdles and I'm against him here. The problem with Ghizao is that he may not have the hurdles class to lie up with them here- his jumping is fine. I also don't like his long layoff, but he could easily place. I think similar comments apply to Realt Dubh whose Irish form is solid but who might need it to come up soft to slow the others down a bit. I'm very negative on Captain Chris who for me needs to go right-handed and will be better at 2 1/2 miles plus. I can't see him winning this but am very interested in him as a long term prospect over further. I'm not too keen on any outsiders at the moment but will update if that changes. all in all if you haven't gotten involved yet I'd make this a watching race- if you must have a bet back Medermit. 10/3/11 The field has been whittled down at the six day stage and we will probably only have a dozen runners. For those of you interested in trading on Betfair, Dan Breen looks the likely leader here in first time blinkers- he could still be in front coming down the hill and trade a good bit shorter than the current 16/1- he wouldn't be the worst back to lay angle but it's hard to see him holding on to win, especially given the poor record of front-runners in this race. I've laid off a good chunk of my Medermit bet on Betfair at just over 3/1. For me he's plenty short enough now. 4th 11/4.

Champion Hurdle Tuesday

This looks like being the race of the Festival and a much stronger contest than last year when Binocular beat Khyber Kim. Binocular is an enigma- brilliant on his day like last year's Champion when he hurdled fluently and pulled clear up the hill. Ponderous on other days, like when beaten at Newbury and struggling home at Sandown. If he turns up in the same form as last year he's a big player, but could still be vulnerable to one of the young improvers. I can't have him at 3/1. Menorah is immensely likeable and has a fantastic attitude- Cue Card is running all over him in the International Hurdle between the last 2 yet he runs away from him up the hill. The doubts are that he hasn't run since that race in December and his hurdling could be better- he's inclined to fiddle one or two and can make mistakes. 5/1 is about right but wouldn't excite me. I won't be popular but I'm against the "Irish banker" Hurricane Fly for a couple of reasons. the most important of these is his jumping- he edges to the right at every hurdle- no problem when you're tootling around Leopardstown on soft ground but a major handicap in a Championship race at always-turning Cheltenham. Secondly his trainer has expressed concern as to how he will handle the whole Cheltenham hulabaloo being a highly strung individual. His lack of form at the track is another big worry. All in all no bargain at 5/1. Peddler's Cross is following the Hardy Eustace and Istabraq route from the old Sun Alliance 2m5f novice to the follwing year's Champion. I really like his attitude and think his price is a little bigger than it should be because everyone assumes that as a horse who stays 2 1/2 miles well he will get outpaced. I don't believe that to be true and feel he has a great chance of giving the North a Champion hurdler. If you see any 6/1 with a run between now and post time then snap it up. Oscar Whiskey would come into it on soft ground but I feel his jumping might let him down on good to soft or better. I can't entertain Dunguib- he still hasn't learnt to jump properly and will probably make at least 2 mistakes, too many to win this. Wasted year when he should have been jumping fences. Of the outsiders Thousand Stars interests me most as he's been to the track and performed winning the County Hurdle. He was sacrificed in the Irish Champion making the running but still wasn't beaten far. He is still available at 50/1 in places with a run 12.5/1 the place part of that looks very generous to me. 13/3/11 The news that Binocular misses the gig is good for us but sad nonetheless. I'm sure better judges than I will dissect this affair thoroughly in the coming days but my gut feeling is that the public should have been kept informed that there was a potential problem- that way noone would be trading the race in the dark as they were. Peddlers Cross 2nd 9/2, Thousand Stars 4th 33/1.

Albert Bartlett Novice Hurdle

I backed Join Together for this some time ago and still fancy him. You need a dour stayer with track form to win this and he ticks those boxes. Others I will play tomorrow probably on Betfair are Our Island and Teaforthree. PU 8/1, unpl 33/1, unpl 28/1.

Cross Country Handicap Chase Tuesday

Looking at the entries for this it's not that difficult to whittle them down as you can virtually put a line through those without experience of this type of racing. Also, people tend to forget that it's a handicap. With his powers perhaps waning a little it's a big ask for Garde Champetre to defy topweight, a task which was beyond him last year. As such it's worth looking for a horse who has been here before and could still be on the up. I think I've found one in Another Jewel, fourth last year as a callow (in cross-country terms) 8yo and off a handy 10-4 this year. After his exploits here in March he ran a close third on unfavourable terms to l'Ami in the la Touche at Punchestown before taking a valuable cross country prize in France at Lion d'Angers. A distant second in a similar French race in September he then had a break before having a blowout over an inadequate 2 1/2 miles at Gowran Park over regulation fences a couple of weeks ago, presumably to leave him spot on for this. I've been steadily building a position on him at 25/1 for the past few days with Ladbrokes and Boyles which has now evaporated but he's arguably an even better bet now at 20/1 NRNB with the independents. unpl 12/1.

Queen Mother Champion Chase Wednesday

This race revolves around Master Minded- is he the horse he was a couple of years ago or has he deteriorated into an ordinary mortal who can be beaten? I'd be in the latter camp and though he could bag another Champion he won't be carrying my cash at 9/4 or so. Big Zeb is the big hope of the Irish to regain the crown he won so well last year. I'm a bit aginst him also on the grounds of age- he's now 10 and won't be getting any faster 10/3 or so is not an appealing price for me. Given that I feel the front 2 can be taken on, there must be some value lurking here. I have backed 2 already and will be adding a third in the coming days. Somersby is my main bet each-way. He has quality Festival form (third in a Supreme, second in an Arkle) and gave Master Minded a real fright at Ascot the last day, staying on over the last 2 to almost mug him on the line. To a man the cognoscenti wanted him to run in the Ryanair but I reckon Henrietta Knight is dead right to stick to a stiff 2 miles with him and go for gold. I find it hard to see him out of the first 3 and have had a good each way bet at 8/1. The current 7/1 is still value. French Opera ducked the Arkle last year to run in the Grand Annual where he put up a big performance under a welter burden- there's little doubt he'd have been in the Arkle shake up. I managed to thieve a bit of 40/1 each way fairly recently (the story of this I'd have to relate in private) but I couldn't put you off investing even at 25/1 now. My final interest each way will be Sizing Europe who I will back at the 14/1 still available with one of the firms going NRNB. Forget the patchy look of his form this season- an abortive attempt to make a speed horse into a Gold Cup contender predictably failed and if Harry De Bromhead can get him to the start in similar form to last year when he blitzed them in the Arkle he's no 14/1 shot. 11/3/11 A roller coaster of emotions with this race in the past week from despair when it seemed Somersby might be switched to the Ryanair to joy when Hen Knight confirmed him for this last night. On Sizing Europe I have one nagging doubt- if I'm So Lucky runs he could take Sizing on for the lead which wouldn't be good- this is a race I'll be watching closely in-running as if the two of them duel for the lead they may set it up for a finisher (which would be in Somersby's favour) Somersby unpl 8/1, French Opera unpl 22/1, WON 10/1

Cheltenham Festival

For the past number of years I have sent an email to a carefully chosen elite with my thoughts on the Festival. I have decided to put these thoughts up on this blog this year. They will appear in stages as I get time to update them, so keep logging in every few days and you'll get the lastest.
I will endeavour to give a precis of what my main thoughts are on each race from a betting perspective, which horses I want to be with or against and a synopsis of the bets I have had or am intending to have.Feel free to leave comments.

Racing Post Chase

This doesn't look like a vintage renewal of the race to me and though those at the head of the market are respected, I can sense the possibility of a shock result. As such I'm taking three against the field, 2 to back now and one if he's confirmed a runner.
Last year's winner Razor Royale faced a few unsuitable challenges after his win 12 months ago and as such competes off only 1lb higher. His trainer is a master at bringing one back from an absence for what must surely have been his target for a long time. He was value for more than the neck he beat Nacarat last year and on similar terms, trades at a much bigger price.
Door Boy lurks at the bottom of the weights, not where you'd usually find the winner of this but attracts me for the same reasons as I put him up for the abandoned Skybet Chase, for which he was well backed. If you take out his runs at Cheltenham, which obviously doesn't suit him, his form over fences isn't actually too bad, and he could give Brian Hughes a nice spin off 10st2lbs.
If the Tizzards change their minds and give Hey Big Spender the green light here rather than waiting for Cheltenham, he must be respected. A fine winner at Warwick recently he is still improving and has backed up before to win after a short break. The current 14/1 would be of interest at the declaration stage.
2 pts win 1 pt place Razor Royale 16/1 gen. Unpl 10/1 -3 pts
2 pts win 1 pt place Door Boy 25/1 gen. Unpl 22/1 -3 pts.
(Hey Big Spender 4th 14/1)

Grand National

I like an early look at this race soon after the weights come out as it is usually possible to narrow the entries down considerably on the grounds of experience, stamina and handicapping.
I am usually mob-handed in this race as luck in running is significant and it's as well to have a few running for you. The ones that interest me this year are as follows:
Ballytrim
Trained by Willie Mullins, he has long had the Grand National as a target and this looks the year.A winner over 3m 6f at Punchestown in 2009 he finished a fine third in the Thyestes at Gowran Park last time out showing a nice return to form. He has only fallen once in his life. Off a nice racing weight of 10st8lbs at present. I've had a reasonable bet on the exchanges at around 70/1.
Big Fella Thanks
This horse has two previous completions in the National finishing sixth to Mon Mome as a mere 7yo in 2009 and 4th to Don't Push It last year. On both occasions he was in the van for a long way and my theory here is that he will have matured and strengthened more this year and might finish his race off better this time around. He's a great jumper and will surely offer the possibility of trading out if still going well on the final circuit. I thought he ran an absolute belter last Saturday at Kempton travelling as well as any until hitting the third last and only fading after 2 out over a trip far too short for him. He is to have one more run at Newbury in early March then all roads lead to Aintree for his new trainer Ferdy Murphy, who knows all about prepping horses for Nationals.
I've invested at Paddy Power's 20/1 paying 5 places.
Arbor Supreme
This horse was my bet in the race last year and was jumping the big fences well until being slightly unsighted by a faller in front of him and belting the Chair, giving his jockey no chance. He continued on himself, continuing to enjoy the experience and can be easily forgiven that lapse.
He hasn't shown a lot on unsuitably soft ground yet this year and the same might apply for his intended run in the Bobbyjo Chase at Fairyhouse but he's a different animal on better ground and has a decent chance if he gets in the race. I've had a bit on on Betfair at around 70/1.
Dooney's Gate
A bit more speculative, but this horse reminds me a bit of King John's Castle, in that he hasn't yet shown the stamina required for this but is bred for the job and just might stay. He has had a sighter over the National fences too finishing 4th in the Topham last year. Patrick Mullins is to ride which is not ideal but at 120/1 on the exchanges there are worse longshots.

2 pts each way Big Fella Thanks 20/1 Paddy Power
1 pt win Ballytrim, Arbor Supreme and Dooney's Gate on Betfair at prices above.

Newbury 18th February 2011

The refixing of last Saturday's meeting tragically lost following the electrocution of two horses in the parade ring gives us another chance to see informative pre-Cheltenham action.
In the Game Spirit Chase at 1.15 I am keen on Donald McCain's new recruit Sports Line at Ladbrokes 13/2. He is a free-going headstrong sort and pulled too hard on his first start for McCain at Exeter. That might just have taken the freshness off him and coming back a furlong is in his favour. Some of his form last year with Willie Mullins entitles him to go close here. Cornas may be better right-handed (all wins that way) Tchico Polos may not appreciate ground this soft and is better fresher, Take The Breeze surely needs further now and softish ground isn't ideal for Imsingingtheblues. French Opera is respected but might be tuning up for the Festival and at the prices Sports Line is preferred.
2 pts win Sports Line 13/2 Ladbrokes.
unpl 7/2 -2 pts.

In the Aon Chase at 12.45 I like Fair Along to give the favourite What A Friend something to think about. He is likely to get an easy lead here and is at his most dangerous under these conditions in small fields over fences. Paul Nicholls horse must give him 10lbs, and there may not be much between them.
2 pts win Fair Along 9/2 Boyles/Stan James
3rd 11/4 -2 pts.

The Totesport Trophy at 1.50 has an emasculated look and isn't as good a contest as last week. Furthermore a lot of the entries wouldn't have welcomed the rain that has fallen in the interim. For those reasons I think John Quinn's Recession Proof now offers value at 14/1. A classy Flat horse, he is lightly raced over hurdles and had a blowout on the all-weather over Christmas- this race has obviously been the target for some time.
2 pts win 1 pt place Recession Proof 14/1 Stan James.
Won 12/1 +31.5 pts.

Boyne Hurdle Navan 13th Feb 2011

This race interests me tomorrow because I wouldn't have Voler La Vedette as short as the odds-compilers do tonight. For me she barely stays 2 1/2 miles on decent ground and I seriously doubt her ability to get home at this trip in deep ground tomorrow. Moskova needs time between races and is off to the paddocks and this may also come to soon for Footy Facts. Oscar Dan Dan is interesting but has had four races since mid December and is usually better fresh. I found it hard to split two- Shinrock Paddy and Rigour Back Bob, but prefer the latter off a longer break at a track he's won at before. He's consistent and being held up will suit as there's plenty of pace in the race. Hills and Boyles 13/2 is worthy of an each-way investment.
1 pt each way Rigour Back Bob 13/2 Hills, Boyles.
2nd 9/2 +0.6 pts.

Deloitte Novice Hurdle Sunday 6th Feb 2011

Going through Sunday's Leopardstown card this race caught my eye because I don't fully buy into the Zaidpour hype and he is likely to be a short price. I felt racing left-handed was a factor in his defeat the last day and his breeding also nags at me (full brother to Zaynar who turned a bit mulish eventually)
Likewise Hidden Universe didn't look entirely happy bearing left in his last Leopardstown win, continually edging and jumping right. He got away with it in poor maiden hurdle company but won't find it so easy in a Grade 1. The only other time he's gone left-handed at the highest level in the Festival Bumper he also flopped badly, seeming not to handle the track.
There won't be any lack of pace on here if they all run as Willie Mullins' Cottrelsbooley usually likes to set a strong pace and Hidden Universe is also ridden prominently. That makes me think that a horse for whom this trip is a minimum might not be too inconvenienced by Sunday's conditions and could find the leaders coming back to him late on- step forward Oscar's Well, who's demolition job of a reasonable Grade 1 field at Navan seems to have gone a little under the radar. That was over 2 1/2 miles but he was always moving well and the final time was good for the conditions, meriting a Topspeed rating of 131.
Of course Zaidpour or Hidden Universe could be the real deal as both had excuses the last day, but 10/1 about Jessie Harrington's solid performer who will relish every drop of rain that falls to increase the stamina test will do me.
1 pt each way Oscar's Well 10/1 Paddy Power.
Won 7/1 +12.5 pts

This blog is far from a complete record of my bets- the National Hunt season thread on Betfair contains most of them: http://community.betfair.com/go/forum/popupExtra?output_method=iframe

Thyestes Chase Gowran Park 20th Jan 2011

Pomme Tiepy is very short for a mare who has had 21 chase starts and who's holdup style is unlikely to suit this race.Agus a Vic also looks a bit exposed but could run into a place.Alpha Ridge jumps to his left and will cover an extra furlong around here.Telenor has no history of going well fresh and there's a suspicion he might be better left-handed over fences.You can expect to see the Midnight Club need this as they surely have an eye on his mark for the National.Whinstone Boy won it last year but might struggle to repeat off no less than a 20lbs higher mark.Bella Mana Mou has some kind of physical problem as her form and her jumping have gone to pot lately- you'd love to buy her cheap and send her to the chiropractor.Stewart's House has to prove to me that he stays 3 miles.Will Jamie Run is an interesting outsider at a huge price- he caught my eye in the Kerry National on ground quicker than he'd have liked but hasn't really gone on from that. He didn't run that badly in the Paddy Power, up in the van for a long way and I'll be looking to back him prerace on Betfair and get my stake back in-running as I can see him going well for a long way- I'm still not sure he stays 3 miles.
This is a poor renewal with a lot of exposed and moderate horses, but one sticks out as being in form, well handicapped and facing ideal conditions. Rocco's Hall was well punted for a 3m5f handicap at Fairyhouse and looke like collecting for a long way, travelling well up with the pace before putting in an extra stride at the last and dislodging Andrew Mac. It was a soft fall and he galloped away fine. There was a suspicion that he might have been coming to the end of his stamina there so the drop back to 3 miles on deep ground could be perfect- his best hurdles form was under those conditions. Raised 2lbs for Fairyhouse he's still 13lbs below his best hurdles mark. Young Mangan takes off 5lbs, he won't be any hindrance having ridden a lovely race on Givemeabuzz at Tramore on New Year's Day.The only other one that interests me is Conor O'Dwyer's Hangover, who's Gowran form figures read 212, including when second in this last year. He didn't show a lot in the Paddy Power but the combination of a return to going right-handed and first time cheekpieces could be enough to spark him back to life.
3 pts win 1 pt place Rocco's Hall 14/1 Boylesports
1 pt each way Hangover 14/1 Coral.
Race postponed, Rocco's Hall eventually balloted out- stakes returned. Hangover unplaced 8/1 loss 2 pts.