The Galway Plate

This is a great race to watch and requires a blend of accurate jumping, tactical speed and stamina to cope with the sharp track, the two fences together in the dip and the stiff climb from the turn into the straight to the winning post.
I like a horse under 11st for this which is not too exposed over fences. Previous course form is a bonus. As such Ladbrokes 14/1 about Paul Nolan's Cuan na Grai is attractive. He won the Galway hurdle back in 2006 and has only had four runs over fences but was impressive at Punchestown in the Spring when beating Themoonandsixpence in a decent novice chase. He likes to race handily which is also an advantage at Ballybrit. He ran today in a good hurdle at Tipperary and finished a good second to Bahrain Storm, who was entitled to beat him on ratings, a run which will leave him spot on for Galway. I'll risk 3 points win and 1 point place.
Unpl 14/1 -4 pts.
Running Total +2.3 pts.

The Galway Hurdle

This is one of my favourite races as I've had some serious touches over the years, notably with More Rainbows in 2005. It's a great trends race and there's a serious bias against the topweights- you need to be looking at a horse likely to carry 10-11 or less. As the admirable Luska Lad and last year's winner Bahrain Storm are both intended runners the weights won't go up. The first one that leapt out at me this year was Dirar, for the on-fire Gordon Elliott. He's only small but continues to improve at a rate of knots and recently won a Flat race at Ayr to show he's in good form. He has a massive chance but is put in as favourite. His price, as well as niggly doubts if the ground softened and a lack of form right-handed mean he is reluctantly overlooked at this stage. It might be fate, but as I was studying this race last night I had half an eye on the action from Killarney and saw a taking performance from Jessie Harrington's Alpine Eagle, who beat a 100 rated rival in a 1m6f Flat race there. His hurdles form in the Spring was solid, with a fair run in the Pierse Hurdle and a slightly unlucky second at Punchestown. He's a previous course winner at Galway on the Flat and the 20-1 available looks big. I'll risk 2 points win and 1 point place.
Alpine Eagle is only third reserve. Have 2 pts win 1 pt place Slieveardagh at the general 14-1 instead, preferably with a firm paying 5 places. He showed a good turn of foot and attitude in his recent Killarney win and has a handy 9-12, with his capable rider taking off a further 5lbs.
Alpine Eagle balloted out 0
Slieveardagh 4th 8/1 +1.3 pts (Rule 4)

John Smiths Cup

One of the most competitive middle distance handicaps of the season this is usually fast and furious with multiple hard-luck stories. A favourite personal memory is laying the Micheal Stoute trained Medicean, who had a coffin draw on the outside. Beaten off 102 he later won a Lockinge and an Eclipse! It isn't possible to be so dogmatic on the draw front these days and winners can come from anywhere. You do need a well handicapped improver though and it may be best to concentrate on the Royal Ascot handicaps this year, already a rich source of subsequent winners. Wigmore Hall was top of my list here after being unlucky in the Hampton Court stakes but he hasn't been missed by the odds compliers. 5/1 is fair and I can see him starting shorter. The two I want to back both ran in the Duke of Edinburgh handicap and finished close together just behind the placed horses. They both had excuses however: Sandor was drawn near the rail but got messed around plenty and could never get daylight to come with an even run. He was running on late. I'll have 1.5 win and .5 place at Stan James' 25/1. Sweet Lightning pulled too hard up in trip and didn't quite get home- he'll do better back at 10f and is worth 1 pt each way at Ladbrokes 12/1.
5th 25/1, unpl 12/1 -4 pts.
Running total +5 pts.

Falmouth Stakes Newmarket Wednesday

In order to stay ahead in this game it pays to look beyond the obvious. Lily Langtry beat the top miling fillies handsomely in the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot but as others have pointed out Ascot form isn't working out that well elsewhere since the new course was laid a few years ago. A filly that may do better over the galloping expanses of the July course is Mick Channon's Music Show, available at 10/1 with Bet 365 or 9/1 elsewhere. She hasn't had the rub of the green in any of her last three runs after winning the Nell Gwyn: In the draw-affected 1,000 Guineas she led home the fillies who raced up the centre, she got going too late in the Irish version but finished a close third and she had a bad trip in the Coronation being stuck very wide all the way and being given too much to do before running on well to finish fourth. If you look where she was turning in at Ascot compared to the winner that run starts to look a lot better and there will be no hard luck stories at Newmarket when her obvious stamina should come into play- I'd hope Richard Hughes rides her a lot closer to the pace and commits for home 2 out. I'll be risking a point.
Won 13/2 +10 pts.
Running Total +9 pts.

Old Newton Cup Haydock Saturday

This tends to be won by an unexposed improving type and 4 year olds have the best record. Hanoverian Baron is a worthy favourite after an impressive win at York's Dante meeting in a fair time. He's about the right price at 5/1. Submariner bids to become another Mark Johnston horse to come out of a Royal Ascot handicap and win next time and he had a genuine excuse there as he could never get to the front as he likes to from his wide draw. Better drawn here he must go well as long as the leaders don't go too fast. Red Merlin won this last year but would be an unusual winner were he to follow up off a mark 8lbs higher.
My idea of the value is the 14/1 with the Tote about Thin Red Line. He had looked a progressive type before running in a 10 furlong handicap at Epsom at the Derby meeting. He finished third but the leaders (including him) went off too fast and the rest of them faded badly, so his run can be upgraded. He was beaten a nose in the 3 year old handicap at this meeting last year when trained by Ed Dunlop and was sold at the horses in training sales at the end of that season for 80,000 gns. He has continued to thrive for Michael Dods and looks a shade overpriced. I'll be risking 1 pt.* I wouldn't back him each way as there are set to be a maximum of 16 runners and it's a near certainty something else will come out to leave the bookies paying only 3 places, poor value.

* Bets on this blog will be from 1 pt to 5 pts and a seasonal tally will be kept.

Unpl 14/1 -1 pt.

Curragh Derby Meeting 2010

The biggest feature of the three day meeting this year was the massive rail bias in the sprint races. Anything racing 2 horse widths or more off the stands rail in the straight had little chance on the fastest ground seen here for many years. Tracey Collins described it perfectly when asked about the chances of her horse Arctic who was drawn wide. " He wouldn't want very fast ground ideally for his first run so I'm happy not to be drawn on the rail as the ground is very fast, but the rail strip is like the road." He was predictably well beaten.
Given the above the performances of the 3rd, 4th and 5th home in what used to be the Scurry Handicap on the Sunday can be upgraded. Hawkeyethenoo continues to look a very well handicapped horse and will be of major interest in his next target at Ayr on his mission to pick up a penalty to ensure he gets into the Steward's Cup. Novellen Lad and Lough Mist are also worth following.
Another who ran better than his finishing position was Kevin Prendergast's Longhunter who was well punted before always being trapped out wide. I lost money on Moonlit Garden on the Friday but this one too may have suffered from her bad draw and being used up early to get near the favoured rail.
One of the most impressive performances was that of Jeremy Noseda's Formosina, who got Ryan Moore out of jail after he got trapped behind horses 2 out before finding a gap and showing a bright turn of foot to cut down Samuel Morse who had the rail. He paid a nice compliment to Strong Suit in the process who beat him well on his debut.
The form of Royal Ascot's 3 year old handicaps looks predictably strong and Mark Johnston won with two Berkshire also rans in Sea Lord and Bay Willow on the Sunday. It may pay to keep an eye on two horses who finished ahead of Sea Lord on the far side in Ransom Note's Brittania in One Good Emperor and Audacity Of Hope.

Introduction

I'm assuming most readers of this will have previously followed my fortunes in my two Racing Forum threads:
http://www.theracingforum.co.uk/horse-racing-forum/daily-lays-and-plays/carvills-lays-and-plays-t78073.html
http://www.theracingforum.co.uk/horse-racing-forum/daily-lays-and-plays/carvills-lays-and-plays-t69614.html.

Over the weeks and months I will be posting my thoughts on races past and future and occasionally giving details on bets made and prices taken.