Gold Cup Friday

The field for this gets smaller every day. Since the start of the season we've lost Burton Port (ouch) Diamond Harry, Punchestowns, Pride Of Dulcote and Weapons Amnesty amongst others which just proves how delicate these top staying chasers are and the fabulous job Paul Nicholls has done keeping Kauto and Denman on the road for another year. For all that I can't have either of those magnificent 11 year olds this time around as Father Time must surely catch up with them soon. Long Run looked fantastic when winning the King George at Kempton but has disappointed in two visits to Cheltenham. His breeder was interviewed in the Racing Post a few weeks ago and opined that he needed soft ground- an interesting take on him. Add in his inexperienced jockey and if I were a bookie I'd go down the page on him at 5/1. Of the front ones in the market, Imperial Commander is the strongest as he'll turn up here under his ideal conditions- that is at Cheltenham, fresh. He must go close and I may well be tempted to back him if I see anything close to 4/1. The only bet (apart from the ill-fated Burton Port wager) I have struck is on Tidal Bay at 40/1, more because I felt that 10/1 about him to place was huge than because I really think he can win. If he doesn't get too detached I can easily see him staying on up the hill past beaten horses. I was close to backing Kempes for this after he won the Hennessy but the stats for horses who started life on the Flat in the Gold Cup are dire- I just wonder if he'll get the extra 2 furlongs on a stiff track. If he does he's a danger to all. What A Friend is a similar type to Tidal Bay in that he looks to be keeping a bit for himself but he interests me for a place- I'll be watching the specials (spreads and place only markets) on the day and will definitely have a small interest. Another one I'd consider for a bet closer to the day is Pandorama. For me he's totally ground dependent though and only if it were looking like proper soft ground would I chance him- on anything faster it could be a repeat of Newbury when he couldn't go the gallop on fastish ground and was forced into mistakes. I don't think Midnight Chase is good enough. By the way if there are some who think there's a bit of aftertiming going on here you're probably right, but as I've said before all my bets are posted "live" once done on the antepost National Hunt thread on Betfair here: http://community.betfair.com/horse_antepost/go/thread/view/94098/25457385/ANTEPOST_NATIONAL_HUNT_BIG_RACE_THREAD_2010111630?pg=42 Tidal Bay unpl 16/1, What A Friend 4th 25/1.