Tuesday, February 22, 2011

Grand National

I like an early look at this race soon after the weights come out as it is usually possible to narrow the entries down considerably on the grounds of experience, stamina and handicapping.
I am usually mob-handed in this race as luck in running is significant and it's as well to have a few running for you. The ones that interest me this year are as follows:
Ballytrim
Trained by Willie Mullins, he has long had the Grand National as a target and this looks the year.A winner over 3m 6f at Punchestown in 2009 he finished a fine third in the Thyestes at Gowran Park last time out showing a nice return to form. He has only fallen once in his life. Off a nice racing weight of 10st8lbs at present. I've had a reasonable bet on the exchanges at around 70/1.
Big Fella Thanks
This horse has two previous completions in the National finishing sixth to Mon Mome as a mere 7yo in 2009 and 4th to Don't Push It last year. On both occasions he was in the van for a long way and my theory here is that he will have matured and strengthened more this year and might finish his race off better this time around. He's a great jumper and will surely offer the possibility of trading out if still going well on the final circuit. I thought he ran an absolute belter last Saturday at Kempton travelling as well as any until hitting the third last and only fading after 2 out over a trip far too short for him. He is to have one more run at Newbury in early March then all roads lead to Aintree for his new trainer Ferdy Murphy, who knows all about prepping horses for Nationals.
I've invested at Paddy Power's 20/1 paying 5 places.
Arbor Supreme
This horse was my bet in the race last year and was jumping the big fences well until being slightly unsighted by a faller in front of him and belting the Chair, giving his jockey no chance. He continued on himself, continuing to enjoy the experience and can be easily forgiven that lapse.
He hasn't shown a lot on unsuitably soft ground yet this year and the same might apply for his intended run in the Bobbyjo Chase at Fairyhouse but he's a different animal on better ground and has a decent chance if he gets in the race. I've had a bit on on Betfair at around 70/1.
Dooney's Gate
A bit more speculative, but this horse reminds me a bit of King John's Castle, in that he hasn't yet shown the stamina required for this but is bred for the job and just might stay. He has had a sighter over the National fences too finishing 4th in the Topham last year. Patrick Mullins is to ride which is not ideal but at 120/1 on the exchanges there are worse longshots.

2 pts each way Big Fella Thanks 20/1 Paddy Power
1 pt win Ballytrim, Arbor Supreme and Dooney's Gate on Betfair at prices above.

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