Punting Evolution

Some thoughts on punting evolution occurred to me recently which are certainly true in my case and may have a wider application.
It strikes me that punters go through various stages of this. When you start betting, unless you are born with unusual skill and judgement, it's all a bit random and you don't have a great sense of discretion, value or control. Most people lose and lose quite badly. This is in itself not a bad thing as it teaches you the dangers of the dark side- uncontrolled random punting will send you broke. I've spoken before of being 16 when my Dad left me the number of his bookie during Cheltenham so I could ring up and have a bet. He knew exactly what would happen and returned to a chastened soul who owed a large multiple of his weekly pocket money. I still think the shame of that was the best lesson I ever learnt.
The second phase on the journey for anyone serious about it has to begin with record keeping. It's far too easy to kid yourself that you're "breaking even" when the reality is usually much different. In my case it took some years of looking down pages of odds-on multiples with small profit or loss before the realization that short prices don't really pay the bills. From recording comes insight and the beginnings of the search for a profitable method. Everyone's paths diverge at this point but the keys are surely finding something you enjoy and can develop a detailed knowledge of to bet on, as after all you are going to have to be a better judge than 95% of the betting population to gain a worthwhile edge. In my case the first step was to stem the losses mostly caused by ill discipline, chasing and interest bets until I could generally eke out a small yearly profit. It took a long time more to gain a decent edge and to become confident of that edge.
Another fair generalization is that it's easier to gain an edge in relatively illiquid markets. I did a lot of ante post betting 20 years ago because if you make a study of the major races on the Flat and Jumps over the year it's not that difficult to spot prices that are out of line. The same goes for overnight prices- like everyone I had a full portfolio of accounts back in the day and picking value from the best ante post and early prices was quite feasible. It's easy enough to spot those punters on Twitter who are at this stage, with their overnight blogs and tips. Indeed, most journalists never get beyond this stage because they don't have to.
Again, inevitably, if you are successful at the above as a normal individual, you begin to run into problems. Accounts begin getting restricted and sometimes closed. This is a turning point for many people. You can become disillusioned and sometimes get turned off the whole game: how unfair is it that the medium you have spent so long studying in order to gain an edge (PhDs are often easier) is now being closed off to you by those pesky bookmakers? You can start using friends and family to get on and start wearing down shoe leather going around shops. Agents can be an outlet. All of these approaches have major downsides, getting paid for one!
Logically, sooner or later you must conclude that the only sustainable way to make it pay is by gaining an edge in highly liquid markets, that is the exchanges close to the off. This approach takes a completely different mindset and it's the mindset for me which is the most important. You must believe you can win and you must be a slave to value. It's no good fancying a price the night before then becoming frustrated when it evaporates. The only way is to price the possible outcomes of an event and wait for the live odds. If something is offered at significantly above your price, you play. If not, you pass. You need patience, discipline and flexibility- it's as far as possible away from the deterministic approach used by the majority who are trying to back the winner.
The final stage as I see it is that of scaling up. Again it's relatively easy to make a small profit but the challenge is once you're confident in your edge to ramp it up in order to win sums that will actually make a difference in your life. Hand in hand with this must go bankroll management- scared money loses and it's vital to put by plenty to allow for the inevitable drawdowns. This point is one that I personally was slow on until fairly recently. I'd play from whatever cash happened to be in the bank at the time but it's an absolute certainty that your betting behavior changes depending on the reserves available to you. When I had a decent win during this current year a friend asked what I was going to buy with the winnings- he was a little bemused when I explained that it was going to make my bank stronger. When your bank is properly funded then starts throwing off some decent returns you can start spending it. I read a blog recently of a winning punter in Australia who is operating on a completely different level to me. He turns over hundreds of thousands every day. Most of what he said was common snse but one quote stuck with me: "Naturally my bet sizes are tiny against bankroll". This is crucial, I believe.
He also undergoes a constant process of reviewing his approach and modifying it month on month and year on year. It's vital to keep adapting as the market does to maintain what ever edge you have.