Wednesday, April 6, 2011

Aintree Foxhunters

5 pm
I thought it would be interesting to detail the process that goes into finding a bet in a race like this. This afternoon (Wednesday) after getting the declarations I went through the field and made the following notes on the likely contenders and priced them up:
Baby Run bold jumping front-running style ideal. Negative that had a hard race at Chelt and might have been beginning to tire when fell, also previously fell here- likely to be put in short, would oppose at 5/1 or less.
Fort View exciting youngster has been held up slight negative, jockey a plus query enough experience for this- would consider win only at 10/1+ Heron's Well front-runner big plus, going OK when fell Chelt drop back in trip a positive fences an unknown who rides? owner's son usually replacement might be a positive. anything above 8/1 interesting.
Ice Tea bold jumping front runner trip a possible negative as stays much further jockey OK, 10/1+ of interest.
Kilty Storm races prom, good pilot, 2nd Aintree/Punch 2010, won 2 pts this ssn- possibly not quite classy enough? 14/1+ of some interest. Massini Man good seq in Hun Chases unpl Kim Muir, races prom- jumping a big worry 20/1+ wouldn't back.
Moncadou second last yr (backed him) good pilot, coming slowly to hand, chance 14/1+ would interest.
Offshore Account led the 09 National a long way jumping well fancied Topham 2010 faded disappointingly modest form since, new stable- hard to fancy 25/1+

Silver Adonis last yrs winner mod form sice tho going OK when fell Kempton small chance 20/1
Turko won well Newbury, some of the best form on offer, however didn't seem to enjoy this in 08 National. If takes to it this time big chance, big if. 8/1 of interest but better in-running play if jumps the first few well.
Van Ness 4th last yr mod pointing form this- small chance 25/1. I will edit this post later when I see prices and detail any bets then made.

9pm Most bookmakers have priced the race and I have a fairly clear idea what I want to do. This is the frustrating period for me in the past few years since almost all my online accounts (and the wife's and the best friends!) were restricted or closed down. Now I can only look at prices overnight and hope they survive to shop time. Heron's Well looks well overpriced at 14/1 with Victor Chandler but I have no chance of getting that. 12/1 with Paddy Power will do and I'll be in a shop early to try and get that each way. Meantime all I can do is have a nibble on Betfair win only. When I reviewed the Foxhunter tape he didn't actually make a mistake, merely stumbled after the feance and his rider fell off. He galloped on and "won" the race so will probably have had a nicer experience than the favourite. Hopefully someone will get yer man to ride a bit longer tomorrow and try and stay on board. I will also back Ice Tea each way at Paddy Power's 12/1 if I can get it. He looks sure to be up in the van and 1/4 first 4 places is a gift. I may have a smaller Betfair tickle on Fort View who trades around 18/1.

10.30am
Off work today so doing my own betting. On days when I'm at work I have three or four people who put on for me in the shops. First stop this morning was Paddy Power to get 12/1 Heron's Well (2 pts each way) and 12/1 Ice Tea (1 pt each way).

4.45 pmOne selection fell, the other brought down- the joys of punting over the National fences. Repeat the above a few hundred times and you have a year in the life of a punter!