Tuesday, November 13, 2018

Punting Evolution

Some thoughts on punting evolution occurred to me recently which are certainly true in my case and may have a wider application.
It strikes me that punters go through various stages of this. When you start betting, unless you are born with unusual skill and judgement, it's all a bit random and you don't have a great sense of discretion, value or control. Most people lose and lose quite badly. This is in itself not a bad thing as it teaches you the dangers of the dark side- uncontrolled random punting will send you broke. I've spoken before of being 16 when my Dad left me the number of his bookie during Cheltenham so I could ring up and have a bet. He knew exactly what would happen and returned to a chastened soul who owed a large multiple of his weekly pocket money. I still think the shame of that was the best lesson I ever learnt.
The second phase on the journey for anyone serious about it has to begin with record keeping. It's far too easy to kid yourself that you're "breaking even" when the reality is usually much different. In my case it took some years of looking down pages of odds-on multiples with small profit or loss before the realization that short prices don't really pay the bills. From recording comes insight and the beginnings of the search for a profitable method. Everyone's paths diverge at this point but the keys are surely finding something you enjoy and can develop a detailed knowledge of to bet on, as after all you are going to have to be a better judge than 95% of the betting population to gain a worthwhile edge. In my case the first step was to stem the losses mostly caused by ill discipline, chasing and interest bets until I could generally eke out a small yearly profit. It took a long time more to gain a decent edge and to become confident of that edge.
Another fair generalization is that it's easier to gain an edge in relatively illiquid markets. I did a lot of ante post betting 20 years ago because if you make a study of the major races on the Flat and Jumps over the year it's not that difficult to spot prices that are out of line. The same goes for overnight prices- like everyone I had a full portfolio of accounts back in the day and picking value from the best ante post and early prices was quite feasible. It's easy enough to spot those punters on Twitter who are at this stage, with their overnight blogs and tips. Indeed, most journalists never get beyond this stage because they don't have to.
Again, inevitably, if you are successful at the above as a normal individual, you begin to run into problems. Accounts begin getting restricted and sometimes closed. This is a turning point for many people. You can become disillusioned and sometimes get turned off the whole game: how unfair is it that the medium you have spent so long studying in order to gain an edge (PhDs are often easier) is now being closed off to you by those pesky bookmakers? You can start using friends and family to get on and start wearing down shoe leather going around shops. Agents can be an outlet. All of these approaches have major downsides, getting paid for one!
Logically, sooner or later you must conclude that the only sustainable way to make it pay is by gaining an edge in highly liquid markets, that is the exchanges close to the off. This approach takes a completely different mindset and it's the mindset for me which is the most important. You must believe you can win and you must be a slave to value. It's no good fancying a price the night before then becoming frustrated when it evaporates. The only way is to price the possible outcomes of an event and wait for the live odds. If something is offered at significantly above your price, you play. If not, you pass. You need patience, discipline and flexibility- it's as far as possible away from the deterministic approach used by the majority who are trying to back the winner.
The final stage as I see it is that of scaling up. Again it's relatively easy to make a small profit but the challenge is once you're confident in your edge to ramp it up in order to win sums that will actually make a difference in your life. Hand in hand with this must go bankroll management- scared money loses and it's vital to put by plenty to allow for the inevitable drawdowns. This point is one that I personally was slow on until fairly recently. I'd play from whatever cash happened to be in the bank at the time but it's an absolute certainty that your betting behavior changes depending on the reserves available to you. When I had a decent win during this current year a friend asked what I was going to buy with the winnings- he was a little bemused when I explained that it was going to make my bank stronger. When your bank is properly funded then starts throwing off some decent returns you can start spending it. I read a blog recently of a winning punter in Australia who is operating on a completely different level to me. He turns over hundreds of thousands every day. Most of what he said was common snse but one quote stuck with me: "Naturally my bet sizes are tiny against bankroll". This is crucial, I believe.
He also undergoes a constant process of reviewing his approach and modifying it month on month and year on year. It's vital to keep adapting as the market does to maintain what ever edge you have.

Monday, March 26, 2018

Cheltenham ruminations and resolutions

If you stand still in this game you're dead, so it's imperative to take stock frequently and find ways to improve. I managed to win a tiny amount over the four days of Cheltenham which in itself doesn't bother me (4 days even 4 busy ones like that is a tiny sample of a year's betting) but I did feel that I could have done things better.
The major change this year was 48 hour declarations for everything (previously only the Grade 1s)
What this meant in practice was that markets for the final declared fields were available 2 evenings before. I'm not sure if these prices were laid in shops that evening but they were certainly available the following morning and from my point of view that's when I have to be ready to act next year. I found the day of race markets pretty much bang on in the conditions races, unsurprisingly, as they had had 2 days to converge and eliminate any ricks. I'll be taking  a leaf out of Tony Keenan's book next year and I'll be on the conditions races like a tramp on chips the week before, playing NRNB and ready to act on anything out of line after decs.
The other major area of interest is NRNB on all races from the time all the firms embrace it. It means laying out a lot of money but it's worth it if you have 6-8 horses with multiple targets that you know must shorten in whatever race they end up in. The one I really wanted to be with this year was Whiskey Sour, but I didn't see the County coming. (Willie unpredictable, how predictable) I did get on but only after decs. I spent fortunes backing Sire De Berlais and Early Doors for everything bar the Boat Race for all the good it did me but in another year 2 or 3 of these click and it's well worth it. The late switchers are where the real gold is though: the Douvan shennanigans a case in point- anyone with positions in the Champion Chase and Ryanair could have done very well out of that.
Another thing I realised is not to be put off by the ground if it's the only reason not to be with a horse- it's an overplayed factor. Horses like Balko Des Flos, Mohayyed and Tiger Roll went off much bigger than they should have because of connections' ground fears- if the price is big enough you can take that chance.
On ante post, I'm also going to have a rethink. this year large positions I had in the championship races laying horses arguably stopped me forming new opinions nearer the race- though they made a profit I'm not sure it was worth it especially as it ties up a lot of funds for several months.
This year I learnt to be even more flexible about "trends" to the point of perhaps binning them altogether. Native River couldn't win the Gold Cup because he had been beaten the year before, Shattered Love couldn't win a novice chase because she was a mare, Balko Des Flos didn't have a course win- it's mostly backfitted nonsense and I think I'll ditch the lot next Festival.
Looking back, I don't feel I did too much wrong- I had 18 horses placed all at double figure prices, so it just feels like variance won this year. That's not as good as it sounds by the way, as I'm usually playing 2-3 horses per race.
Lastly, considering it was the first year I didn't attend (excepting the abandoned year and a year in Australia) since the early '90s, I didn't miss it. I'm not sure if that says more about me, or the modern Festival.

Sunday, January 28, 2018

No Mas, Michael.

I have been attending the Cheltenham Festival since going with my Dad in the early 1990s. I've hardly missed a year since. Yet I came out of my now normal two day pilgrimage on the Wednesday night last year and decided I wasn't going back.
My first year attending may have been 1992 (painful memories of my hero Carvills Hill's eclipse) but the fabric of my Festival memories goes back a lot further- to my early teens when I first got interested in racing and began to partake in the endless winter debates about Champion Hurdles, Gold Cups and Champion Chases. Speculation about Irish horses going over to take on the might of England kept us enthused in the long winter evenings and tales of heroes past like Vincent O'Brien's domination of the Gloucester Hurdle, Paddy Sleator's daring raids and Mick O'Toole's tilts at the ring filled many a Friday evening at Uncle Jim's.
It was simpler them, three perfect days, three championship races and nowhere to hide. All that changed utterly when the jamboree expanded to four days. Now we had races at intermediate distances- the Ryanair, the JLT, three novice hurdles, mares races, a Cross Country for God's sake. It was Quantitative Easing for racing- dilute the product and spread it thinner, no one will notice. Outwardly, they haven't. All four days are well attended, the focus on Cheltenham is arguably narrower than ever, the racing is still exciting. The Festival dollar in your pocket still buys what it always did- or does it?
Michael O'Leary was out front and centre this week pushing for another new Festival race- an intermediate distance Championship hurdle. In his argument he mused that the Gold Cup in 2016 was no poorer for the absence of the 176 rated Ryanair winner Vautour. All of the speculation that season after he was chinned on the line in the King George was around whether he would get the trip in the Gold Cup- it split people down the middle like a civil war. Then mere days before Cheltenham the news came that he was ducking the gig and taking the easier option over two miles five. Anyone who asserts that this didn't devalue that year's Gold Cup is a fool or a knave- I'm not sure which you are Michael but it's evens each of two.
The extra races have already torn the narrative of time, of champions- how good was Quevega? Annie Power? Could both have won multiple championship races against the boys? How many Bobsline/Noddy's Ryde clashes have we missed out on since the JLT? Can you name the last 4 winners of the Martin Pipe?
Why do I feel relaxed about missing out in March? It's no fun any more- I don't know what will run in which race, I don't really care who wins most of them and I no longer deem it worth the scrum and the expense. I will go back, but I'm not saying when.
If you're losing me from the March extravaganza you're losing a fair chunk of your previous diehards. In good times like this it may not matter, but when the next downturn comes your four days may start to look a litttle threadbare, both in terms of the "product" and the bottom line.

Tuesday, January 9, 2018

Irish Racing, because we're worth it.

Kevin Blake wrote a blog for Attheraces this week calling for, among other things, an expansion of the winter Dundalk programme and a second all weather track in Munster. I argued against this on Twitter but the constraints of 280 characters prompted this blog.
Irish Racing does entitlement like The Donald does hair and ego. The simple truth is that the Irish industry is blessed by being subsidized from the public purse every year. Betting turnover does not cover the cost of putting on racing. Calls for more racing, especially lower class Flat racing must be viewed through this prism.
Dundalk on a Friday night is one of Irish racing's success stories: it's getting good brand recognition through the Attheraces coverage with the two cheeky chappies and the horses and personalities there are becoming known to a wider audience. People bet on things they are familiar with- Dundalk on a Friday is becoming part of the fabric: you go down to the pub, watch it on the telly and have a few bets- what better way to kick off the weekend? Would Tipperary on a Tuesday night garner the same interest or betting turnover? Would betting turnover increase substantially as the number of 0-65 all weather handicaps ballooned?
They can do it in France, was the cry- ah yes, but they have a Tote monopoly and every penny of betting turnover is made to count. In our model we have to make do with the scraps from the Paddy Power table.
What our industry has to realise is that the only sustainable business model is one where it is self-financing. There is only so much rural employment guff successive governments will listen to when (inevitably) times get tougher. The current exchequer largesse is a low hanging fruit waiting to be picked by the next left-leaning coalition partner facing into a difficult budget with the media screaming about hundreds of patients on trolleys. If at that point we have another all weather track and a further bloated fixture list the pain of loss will be far worse.
The energies of those in our industry should be put into consolidating and selling what we have. The Irish Tote despite some success in promoting the Pick 6 is largely moribund and shows very little appetite for modernization or innovation. It needs root and branch reform to offer a real alternative to exchange betting and fixed odds. TV coverage is gold- the Friday night programme sells the product. We need more features on the people and horses who put on the show, even if the industry funds them itself. Ger Lyons' son recently produced a "day in the life" piece on his Dad which was excellent- that sort of human interest piece is what should be playing on Attheraces between the Friday races. Why aren't we inviting Luke and Jason over for a tour of Meath/North Dublin via Ado McGuinness, Garvan Donnelly and Demot McLoughlin?
If we get into a situation where the product generates enough betting turnover to pay for itself we can talk about more tracks and more fixtures. Until that we need to concentrate on selling what we have.