Thursday, March 10, 2011

Supreme Novice Hurdle Tuesday

The first thing to say about this race is to check out the myriad of offers available: Paddy Power will refund all losing bets if Cue Card wins. Bambury bookmakers will pay you as a winner if you finish second to Cue Card. Betfair will add 25% to any winnings you make backing, laying or trading the race on the day. Cue Card sets a very high standard here even though his last piece of form has taken some knocks since. Still, finishing third in open company to Menorah is a quality line of form which will have him comfortably top-rated here. When you look back at his demolition job of the bumper field last year it's hard not to conclude that he's going to take some beating. Negatives would be that he's inclined to run a bit free, but this should be run at a good gallop especially if Magen's Star runs, and the fact that he hasn't been seen since that slightly disappointing effort in December. I have laid him on Betfair at 9/4 as he's another favourite I think will drift on the day as the bookies try to get off to a flyer remembering how they got the last two bumper winners (Cousin Vinny and Dunguib) beaten. The difference between them and this horse is that this fella can jump. I will make him a decent winner for me by the off if he ever touches 3/1 or better, which I think he will. The aforementioned Magen's Star isn't definitely confirmed here as they are waiting to see what the ground is like but I've taken a bit of 28/1 with Paddy Power with the concession above as I can see them letting her go in front and she might just be hard to catch- definitely another trading opportunity in-running on Betfair. Of the two Nicky Henderson runners I much prefer Sprinter Sacre but I seem to be in a minority as the horse is friendless in the market in the past week. He may be a doubtful runner but I'll be backing him at some stage each way, probably again with Paddy Power- he seriously impressed me at Ascot the last day and I don't see him as short of pace. Magen's Star unpl 14/1, Sprinter Sacre 3rd 11/1.

No comments:

Post a Comment