Arkle Chase Tuesday

The market for this is now fairly mature but I will give you my thoughts on the main contenders and tell you what I've done so far. Medermit was off my radar for this after his first couple of fencing efforts when he didn't convince at Aintree and he refused at Huntingdon. He's got back on track since however winning at Plumpton, just getting outstayed at Cheltenham over 2m5f and just lasting home over slightly shorter at Sandown, when I thought he was idling in front and always too good for Captain Chris. His jumping that day was much better and I backed him after that race for this at what looked a too-big 8/1. The current 3/1 makes no appeal but he's the most likely winner as the classiest of them over hurdles who has now learnt to jump. Finian's Rainbow is undefeated over fences but has looked anything but a natural in his three small-field wins. It was a horror show around Warwick the last day and he'll need to jump an awful lot better. Add to that the fact that he likes to lead, a major negative in this race and the fact that he's come up short at the top level over hurdles and I'm against him here. The problem with Ghizao is that he may not have the hurdles class to lie up with them here- his jumping is fine. I also don't like his long layoff, but he could easily place. I think similar comments apply to Realt Dubh whose Irish form is solid but who might need it to come up soft to slow the others down a bit. I'm very negative on Captain Chris who for me needs to go right-handed and will be better at 2 1/2 miles plus. I can't see him winning this but am very interested in him as a long term prospect over further. I'm not too keen on any outsiders at the moment but will update if that changes. all in all if you haven't gotten involved yet I'd make this a watching race- if you must have a bet back Medermit. 10/3/11 The field has been whittled down at the six day stage and we will probably only have a dozen runners. For those of you interested in trading on Betfair, Dan Breen looks the likely leader here in first time blinkers- he could still be in front coming down the hill and trade a good bit shorter than the current 16/1- he wouldn't be the worst back to lay angle but it's hard to see him holding on to win, especially given the poor record of front-runners in this race. I've laid off a good chunk of my Medermit bet on Betfair at just over 3/1. For me he's plenty short enough now. 4th 11/4.