Saturday, March 12, 2011

Ryanair Chase Thursday

The absence of Tranquil Sea and now probably Somersby (thank God) are further blows to this race's credibility as a Grade 1. It is now shaping up as the weakest race so designated at the Festival, further grist to the mill of those (myself included) who think that all this race does is weaken the Champion Chase and the Gold Cup. Poquelin is a solid favourite with excellent course form- the only thing wrong with him is his price. Kalahari King too has some excellent Festival efforts but always seems to come up a little short and is now a 9yo- he could win but the price doesn't excite. Alberta's Run won this last year but his current form is awful- he'd have been an interesting outsider at a double-figure price but that much forgiveness at 7/1 isn't for me. I've taken a complete flyer tonight on a horse at 40/1- Hey Big Spender. He has good course and distance form including when running very well in the Jewson (was a handicap last year) before falling. He won impressively at Warwick off top weight two starts ago then ran fourth in the Racing Post Chase at Kempton where he got mullered at the very first fence and did well to finish as close as he did. He's still on the improve and 10/1 to place looks big to me in a race that could cut up badly. unpl 18/1.

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