Wednesday, March 2, 2011

Queen Mother Champion Chase Wednesday

This race revolves around Master Minded- is he the horse he was a couple of years ago or has he deteriorated into an ordinary mortal who can be beaten? I'd be in the latter camp and though he could bag another Champion he won't be carrying my cash at 9/4 or so. Big Zeb is the big hope of the Irish to regain the crown he won so well last year. I'm a bit aginst him also on the grounds of age- he's now 10 and won't be getting any faster 10/3 or so is not an appealing price for me. Given that I feel the front 2 can be taken on, there must be some value lurking here. I have backed 2 already and will be adding a third in the coming days. Somersby is my main bet each-way. He has quality Festival form (third in a Supreme, second in an Arkle) and gave Master Minded a real fright at Ascot the last day, staying on over the last 2 to almost mug him on the line. To a man the cognoscenti wanted him to run in the Ryanair but I reckon Henrietta Knight is dead right to stick to a stiff 2 miles with him and go for gold. I find it hard to see him out of the first 3 and have had a good each way bet at 8/1. The current 7/1 is still value. French Opera ducked the Arkle last year to run in the Grand Annual where he put up a big performance under a welter burden- there's little doubt he'd have been in the Arkle shake up. I managed to thieve a bit of 40/1 each way fairly recently (the story of this I'd have to relate in private) but I couldn't put you off investing even at 25/1 now. My final interest each way will be Sizing Europe who I will back at the 14/1 still available with one of the firms going NRNB. Forget the patchy look of his form this season- an abortive attempt to make a speed horse into a Gold Cup contender predictably failed and if Harry De Bromhead can get him to the start in similar form to last year when he blitzed them in the Arkle he's no 14/1 shot. 11/3/11 A roller coaster of emotions with this race in the past week from despair when it seemed Somersby might be switched to the Ryanair to joy when Hen Knight confirmed him for this last night. On Sizing Europe I have one nagging doubt- if I'm So Lucky runs he could take Sizing on for the lead which wouldn't be good- this is a race I'll be watching closely in-running as if the two of them duel for the lead they may set it up for a finisher (which would be in Somersby's favour) Somersby unpl 8/1, French Opera unpl 22/1, WON 10/1

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