Cheltenham Day 4

Triumph Hurdle
To follow

County Hurdle
Fascinating money this morning (Tuesday 6th) for David Pipe's Master Of Arts for both the Imperial Cup and this race. The stable have plenty of previous in pulling off Imperial Cup/Cheltenham coups but to win a County off 3 lifetime hurdles starts would earn my vote as one of the training performances of the season- this is a rough race.
The one which caught my eye at this stage was Tony Martin's Redera. Given a sighter around here in a novice hurdle behind Steps To Freedom at the November meeting he wasn't seen again until running in a warm 2 mile handicap at Leopardstown when friendless in the market. His rider seemed keen to give the outside to noone but still came to the last with a chance and finished a decent third. I'm certain that wasn't the day and that there's any amount of improvement in him. Good ground is vital and if he runs here under those conditions I struggle to see him starting anywhere near the bookies' current offer of 33/1 NRNB. He's streetwise from the Flat and AJM is sure to book a decent pilot like Carberry or Walsh on the day.

Albert Bartlett

I put up Sea Of Thunder for this a while ago at 10/1. You can still get 8/1 at the time of writing which still looks a bit on the big side. A winner of two points he was brought along very patiently by Charles Byrnes running a few times at inadequate trips before being sent over for a race over this course and trip in December. He'd have lagged up showing much improved form for the trip if he hadn't fallen at the last. Put away after that he reappeared at Leopardstown at the end of January over 2 1/2 miles on unsuitably heavy ground where he wasn't abused when finishing fifth to Boston Bob. There is no better target trainer than Mr Byrnes and though I missed the fancy prices (I thought he might have had a handicap in mind) I'd still like to be with him even if Boston Bob reopposes.

Gold Cup

Having put up Captain Chris before the King George at 20/1 NRNB I'm hoping they miss the gig as his old right-jumping frailties resurfaced in the Argento and he would be best kept right-handed from now on in my opinion. Ironic, as it was this tendency which prompted me to suggest that he couldn't win last year's Arkle- the fact that he did probably doesn't say much for the quality of that renewal. Miss Cheltenham altogether and go fresh to the Punchestown Gold Cup Mr Hobbs and do me and your horse a favour.
Long Run is just too short for a horse with his jumping issues and an inexperienced rider on board. He got away with a few mistakes last year but I wonder if they took their toll on him mentally or physically as he hasn't moved with the same ease this season- it all looks a bit of an effort. OK he gave 10lbs to a decent horse in Burton Port at Newbury but from looking as if he'd go away and win 3 or 4 he struggled home and you couldn't even be 100% sure he'd confirm that form. The runner up has a chance here if he improves rather than regresses from that outing but he's plenty short enough now given that doubt. I was on him for my life for last year's race after his Hennessy run and still think he's up to this class but one run close to the Festival is not an ideal Gold Cup preparation.
Kauto Star is the fairytale horse but I didn't really fancy him before the recent scare and can't have him at all now. Even if he's 100% recovered the whole malarkey has to be detrimental mentally- when he should be resting in his box the last few weeks he's got numerous bloody humans poking and prodding him in sore places.
I can't have a novice in the Gold Cup so even if Grands Crus turns up here a single-figure price wouldn't interest me- he'll be trying to achieve something exceptional and we're not getting paid enough for that. It's also not a given that he'll stay the trip well enough at Gold Cup pace- I'd even be taking him on in the RSA for that reason so can't have him on my mind here.
Given the above there has to be some value in the race and I backed Weird Al a little while ago at 20/1. His lack of a recent run is a plus if anything as he must be like a porcelain doll and doesn't take racing very well at all. Given that, the Betfair Chase might have been plenty quick after his reappearance win in the Charlie Hall and he may well improve on his third place in that coming here fresh and well. He loves the track and is still a bit too big at 14/1.
I don't think Quel Esprit will be quite good enough or stay well enough.
So often we think we have horses categorised but they prove us dead wrong- Synchronised needs the mud? Hoses up in a Lexus on good going to prove us all wrong. Might not have beaten a lot though as for me the second Rubi Light was a non-stayer and the Quito de la Roque bubble has been well and truly burst. I couldn't write him off here though as a strong stayer who might just have more class than we thought. If the rain comes his price will halve.
Midnight Chase loves Cheltenham, good ground an an easy lead. If he gets all three he's not out of it- a lot will depend on how many line up and if there are any others desperate to make the pace or harry him. If they leave him alone and he gets into a good jumping rhythm he's got at least place chances.
The likes of What A Friend (short-headed by Kauto last year to deny me the place part of a lump each way at 40/1) and Tidal Bay are capable of dodging their way into a place but it's hard to see them having the resolution to win.

Foxhunters
I can't pretend I've been though this in any detail but I was mightily impressed with Salsify at Leopardstown in what is traditionally our strongest hunter chase. He travelled and jumped like a dream for Colman Sweeney and for me was different class to the opposition. When there were offers of 10/1 a few days later for this contest I had my biggest antepost bet of the season on him. He won at both Spring festivals last year and is a young horse going places. I would easily excuse his flop on bad ground at Thurles as he needs decent going and his jockey is as good as any of them riding in this. The current 8/1 is still worth an interest.