Tuesday, March 6, 2012

Cheltenham Day 3

Ryanair Chase
This is shaping up to be one of the races of the Festival if all the intended runners stand their ground. For me there are at least 7 credible contenders all nudging top class, good to see as the contest has been a bit weak in previous years.
Rubi Light is favourite for me unless it comes up fast, given his cracking run last year as a callow 6yo and his considerable progress since. He loves serving it up from the front and if there's any dig at all underfoot they may struggle to keep tabs on him- I put him up at 20/1 before he won at Punchestown and my only regret is that we couldn't get more on. I make him practically unbeatable on soft ground at this trip and it's only the prospect of faster that give his rivals hope.
Noble Prince was the subject of an earlier blog post as his campaigning this year leaves a lot to be desired. There were races where he'd have had his preferred conditions (2 1/2 miles or thereabouts on good ground) but his trainer chose to keep flogging him around against two-milers on bad ground with predictable results. I'm a big believer in horses going to the Festival on a high and it's advantage Rubi Light over him in that regard. For me his price should have drifted more on the back of his last few runs and I'd still expect him to be a little easier to back on the day. If he were to drift I'd certainly consider him after his impressive win in the novice equivalent last year but for now he's too short.
I'd be against Riverside Theatre as he has a best fresh profile and all his form is on flat tracks. On the figures he should be nearly favourite but if I can place lay him at 6/4 or less I will.
Somersby has arguably the best form in the race and did me a favour winning at Ascot the last day. I think they'll end up running here though the Queen Mother looks the easier option this year. I can't quite decide why he doesn't win more as no trip seems right- I wouldn't count him out and could even have an each-way interest but if this is as strong on the day as it looks now he may just be a place chance. That said if Rubi tows them along at a good clip it could just suit him...
Poquelin loves this track and always gives his best. 16/1 is a bit of an insult though he has a few lbs to find.
My second bet is on Great Endeavour a little while ago at 14/1: fresh at this track and trip his record is excellent and though he needs to find 10lbs from somewhere he might just do so.
Medermit is also right in this as Cheltenham will suit him better than his Ascot conqueror Riverside Theatre. He's probably about the right price now after Pricewise put him up.
Alberta's Run keeps coming back to the Spring festivals and producing the goods despite appearing to be in awful form beforehand- you couldn't rule him out though he'll probably have to produce his best ever run at the age of 11 to win this year.


No comments:

Post a Comment