Tuesday, March 6, 2012

Cheltenham Day 2

Fred Winter
My starting point in this race is the Flat ability of the runners as this can give an indication of which of them might be well handicapped. One who stood out to me on my first spin through was Gordon Elliott's Discoteca who won off 85 on the Flat yet is rated only 122 over obstacles. This for me is likely to be because after a decent start when second to Chill on decent ground at Leopardstown his next two starts to obtain a mark were on bad ground, which on his Flat form looks totally unsuitable. He's not certain to get in but if he does the current 20/1 NRNB will be a distant memory.
On Flat ability Creekside would come into this but I'd have doubts about his stamina over a stiff 2 miles- he wasn't making any ground late on at Towcester and he might not get up the hill in what's sure to be a well-run contest.

RSA
One of my favourite races to play a couple of longshots as the shorter priced ex top hurdlers often don't cut the mustard here- it's a brutal race and the biggest attribute needed is stamina.
Even if Grands Crus turns up here I'd be against him on stamina grounds. Bobs Worth's jumping technique doesn't convince me and the same comments apply to First Lieutenant.
I'll probably back a couple more on the day but felt I should get involved at this stage on Lambro at the current 25/1. It's not out of the question that Ruby could end up riding and I love his jumping and his attitude. His chasing runs this season have been at inadequate trips as I'm convinced he wants every yard of this 3 miles. This race is cutting up by the day (Invictus the latest injury doubt) and I doubt we'll beat "pony" on the day.

Bumper
There are a few filters which are useful to narrow down the possibilities here- experience in a big field is one of the better ones. That counts aginst New Year's Eve and Jezki.
For me the Irish runners tend to be overbet now given the previous monopoly we had on this race but the Brits have won the last two and it may be worth chancing that they'll make it three in a row.
The Oliver Sherwood trained Many Clouds was visually impressive at Wetherby but he looks a future chasing type and might struggle for pace amongst the Flat breds unless the rains come.
One of the stories of the season has been how John Ferguson has been mopping up with well-bred Sheikh Mo cast offs in bumpers and novice hurdles. If the going rides decent on the second day which given the forecast looks likely then his flashy white-faced son of Noverre Population could be the one to be on here. Watching his two wins at Ascot I was taken with his tactical speed, courage to come between horses and electric turn of foot. For me he idles in front in his second win and is value for more than the winning margin. The current 16/1 available is fair, and I'll be keeping a beady eye on the market between now and next week.
11/3/12
It doesn't look as if Population will run- I'll be having another look on the day.

No comments:

Post a Comment