Cheltenham 2012 Day 1.

With the Festival almost upon us again I'm giving my thoughts on here for the second year. As usual it'll be a synopsis of my thoughts on each race and the horses I'm with or against updated every day or two between now and the off each day so keep visiting!
The Betfair thread where all my bets for the NH season are posted "live" is in the Horse Antepost section and is called the NH 2011-12 big races thread- 80 odd points profit this NH season so far.



Supreme Novices
I have had one bet here on Galileo's Choice at 12/1 posted on my Betfair thread before he won at Fairyhouse. He jumped well that day bar 3 out and heads to Cheltenham with every chance as the best Flat horse in the lineup, being a Group 3 winner. Better ground is a big plus and I wouldn't want to see rain on watered ground before the meeting. If it gets softer the NH breds come more into things-look for those who started life in bumpers rather than on the Flat. I don't think those at the head of the market are all that strong and may well play another longshot or two on the day. I couldn't have Darlan (bad fall at Newbury, underperformed only visit here) or Steps To Freedom (no run since mid November) at current prices. I think Colour Squadron is always underrated given his quirks but see him running well here and perhaps contending at Liverpool as winning this off a fall is not easy.
8/3/12
I'm warming a bit to Nicky Henderson's Tetlami at around 16/1. He has bumper form at the track and has won his two hurdles starts without breaking sweat. An easy win in the "jumpers bumper" at Kempton will have set him up nicely for this and he'll go there with his confidence on a high. I have had an interest tonight at that price with Bet365.

Arkle
Over the years it has paid to take on the hype horses at the Festival and by far the biggest of them this year is Sprinter Sacre. He was undeniably impressive at Newbury against open company but the memory of him travelling all over them in the Supreme last year before flattening out after the last gives hope to those taking him on at a short price.
That's what I've done as to date I've backed 3 each way against him, thinking that the race might cut up to 8 or even less runners. On the thread I put up Al Ferof at 7/1 and Menorah at 14s, and I've also punted Cue Card at 9s. I'd have these 3, the favourite and Peddler's Cross as the only possible winners here and the market vibes about the latter have not been encouraging recently. He looked laboured when Sprinter beat him at Kempton and may have had his problems. If his excellent trainer can get him back he's got a big chance but given the doubts I'll pass.
Cue Card is likely to get an easy lead here and I can see him kicking on down the hill and trading quite short at some stage, whether he can last home is the doubt but he looks rock-solid each way. Menorah has had a nightmare novice season falling twice but he wouldn't be the first good hurdler to overcome this on the day and put in a good round of jumping when really needed. Al Ferof will surely need further in time but where Sprinter was fading he was finishing up this hill and if he's within 6 lengths of them turning in he has a chance.
11/3/12
I've added an each-way bet on Kid Cassidy at 33/1- he's not an 8/1 chance to place if this cuts up to 7 or 8 runners.

JLT Specialty Handicap Chase
I'd imagine Quantitativeasing will end up with topweight of 11:12 here meaning the weights will go up 5lbs. Not an easy race to carry big weights and I'll be putting a line through all those above the 11st mark in the current handicap. One that jumped out at me when first going through this race was Dessie Hughes' Magnanimity who looks quite well in on his run in the RSA last year. He's a horse who usually needs his first couple of runs every season and I thought he showed enough in the Bobbyjo Chase last time to suggest he is coming to his peak and there is no better target trainer for staying chasers than Dessie Hughes. His stable have been out of form since Christmas but there have been some encouraging signs recently that he might be turning the corner. I haven't backed the horse yet but will be keeping a close eye on the 20/1 now available if it starts to look like he's travelling over.
Update 8/3/12
There's a little bit of cash around for him today so I've taken 20/1 NRNB.
11/3/12
I've backed a couple more in the last few days namely Fruity O'Rooney at 25/1 and Summery Justice at 33/1. I will be looking closely at one more on the day Baile Anrai if he runs here- he wouldn't have been far away in the Reynoldstown last day when he fell 3 out. He edged a bit left that day and as such might prefer it around here.

Champion Hurdle
The Fly, or not to Fly...
He and Sprinter Sacre will make or break most people's first days and I won't be able to resist playing one or two against him though I expect him to win.
Top of my list is Rock On Ruby who did me a big favour when winning at the Hennessy meeting and who is all guts and class. My worry is that he hasn't run since going down narrowly to Binocular at Christmas and the vibes are only middling. I may well still be tempted by a price around the 14-16/1 mark on the day if the reports are good.
I'd be a little against Binocular at the price as it's hard to regain your crown here and though he looks better recently he's had major issues which could resurface in the white heat of battle.
I still can't back a 5yo in this despite Kaachit laying the ghost and can't have Zarkandar at a short price. He did very well to win the Betfair (old Tote Gold Trophy) at Newbury off a big weight but might just come up short this year. Oscar's Well is improving with every start this season but anyone who saw the Fly laugh at him at Leopardstown will find it hard to imagine him reversing the placings under conditions which should favour the strong travelling Fly even more.
The rest just don't look good enough and the race may well cut up to 8 or 9 runners. Kalann does run and will improve for the better ground- it wouldn't shock me if he ran well above his mark.
11/3/12
I'll probably be sitting this out- someone ate my lunch on Rock On Ruby taking all the 14/1 so I'm unlikely to play now.

Cross Country
Not for the purist but a good race for punting (when they go the right way) as most of them can be eliminated if they haven't got previous decent form over this or another similar course. It's hard to say what would have happened at the December meeting before they all got carried out but Uncle Junior and Scotsirish would definitely have been involved. I don't think Garde Champetre will be good enough this time- he'd be a place lay for me.
In my opinion two things matter less than in normal races here- weight and distance. They seem to tootle around for 3 1/2 miles then sprint from the turn in so the class horses come to the fore and extra weight has less impact. That means the 2 Mullins horses are big players despite their weights and in Scotsirish's case, slight stamina doubt. If those doubts allow backing either or both at an each-way price on the day I'll be playing them.
Sizing Australia won last year and has every chance again.
I've had two bets so far- Quezac De La Roque each way at 25/1 is the first- he ran a screamer last year for a 7yo only fading late on and has a massive place chance at least this time, especially if we get a bit of rain. This course is currently riding very fast as they can't water it and if it went good or softer his chance would increase.
A complete flyer is also taken with 100/1 De Danu, who was running a nice race at Punchestown last month before slipping off the last bank and losing all chance. He was under the cosh at the December meeting when the melee took place but having only had three cross country starts he is entitled to improve a bit. I certainly wouldn't want to be laying 25/1 to finish in the first 4.

Centenary Novice Handicap
I'm getting conflicting messages about whether he travels or not but if Nearest The Pin shows up here he could be very well handicapped on the likely better ground. Highly thought of at Tony Martin's his best run hurdling was on the better ground at Fairyhouse when bolting up despite AJM's horses not being in the best of form. This season's chasing efforts have been underwhelming but he has looked unhappy on deep winter going and hasn't been knocked about. I have a feeling they are just waiting for one of the Spring festivals to strike from what now looks a very fair mark. One thing is for sure- if he runs in this he won't be anywhere near the current 20/1 you can get NRNB with a few firms.