Racing Post Chase

This doesn't look like a vintage renewal of the race to me and though those at the head of the market are respected, I can sense the possibility of a shock result. As such I'm taking three against the field, 2 to back now and one if he's confirmed a runner.
Last year's winner Razor Royale faced a few unsuitable challenges after his win 12 months ago and as such competes off only 1lb higher. His trainer is a master at bringing one back from an absence for what must surely have been his target for a long time. He was value for more than the neck he beat Nacarat last year and on similar terms, trades at a much bigger price.
Door Boy lurks at the bottom of the weights, not where you'd usually find the winner of this but attracts me for the same reasons as I put him up for the abandoned Skybet Chase, for which he was well backed. If you take out his runs at Cheltenham, which obviously doesn't suit him, his form over fences isn't actually too bad, and he could give Brian Hughes a nice spin off 10st2lbs.
If the Tizzards change their minds and give Hey Big Spender the green light here rather than waiting for Cheltenham, he must be respected. A fine winner at Warwick recently he is still improving and has backed up before to win after a short break. The current 14/1 would be of interest at the declaration stage.
2 pts win 1 pt place Razor Royale 16/1 gen. Unpl 10/1 -3 pts
2 pts win 1 pt place Door Boy 25/1 gen. Unpl 22/1 -3 pts.
(Hey Big Spender 4th 14/1)

Grand National

I like an early look at this race soon after the weights come out as it is usually possible to narrow the entries down considerably on the grounds of experience, stamina and handicapping.
I am usually mob-handed in this race as luck in running is significant and it's as well to have a few running for you. The ones that interest me this year are as follows:
Ballytrim
Trained by Willie Mullins, he has long had the Grand National as a target and this looks the year.A winner over 3m 6f at Punchestown in 2009 he finished a fine third in the Thyestes at Gowran Park last time out showing a nice return to form. He has only fallen once in his life. Off a nice racing weight of 10st8lbs at present. I've had a reasonable bet on the exchanges at around 70/1.
Big Fella Thanks
This horse has two previous completions in the National finishing sixth to Mon Mome as a mere 7yo in 2009 and 4th to Don't Push It last year. On both occasions he was in the van for a long way and my theory here is that he will have matured and strengthened more this year and might finish his race off better this time around. He's a great jumper and will surely offer the possibility of trading out if still going well on the final circuit. I thought he ran an absolute belter last Saturday at Kempton travelling as well as any until hitting the third last and only fading after 2 out over a trip far too short for him. He is to have one more run at Newbury in early March then all roads lead to Aintree for his new trainer Ferdy Murphy, who knows all about prepping horses for Nationals.
I've invested at Paddy Power's 20/1 paying 5 places.
Arbor Supreme
This horse was my bet in the race last year and was jumping the big fences well until being slightly unsighted by a faller in front of him and belting the Chair, giving his jockey no chance. He continued on himself, continuing to enjoy the experience and can be easily forgiven that lapse.
He hasn't shown a lot on unsuitably soft ground yet this year and the same might apply for his intended run in the Bobbyjo Chase at Fairyhouse but he's a different animal on better ground and has a decent chance if he gets in the race. I've had a bit on on Betfair at around 70/1.
Dooney's Gate
A bit more speculative, but this horse reminds me a bit of King John's Castle, in that he hasn't yet shown the stamina required for this but is bred for the job and just might stay. He has had a sighter over the National fences too finishing 4th in the Topham last year. Patrick Mullins is to ride which is not ideal but at 120/1 on the exchanges there are worse longshots.

2 pts each way Big Fella Thanks 20/1 Paddy Power
1 pt win Ballytrim, Arbor Supreme and Dooney's Gate on Betfair at prices above.

Newbury 18th February 2011

The refixing of last Saturday's meeting tragically lost following the electrocution of two horses in the parade ring gives us another chance to see informative pre-Cheltenham action.
In the Game Spirit Chase at 1.15 I am keen on Donald McCain's new recruit Sports Line at Ladbrokes 13/2. He is a free-going headstrong sort and pulled too hard on his first start for McCain at Exeter. That might just have taken the freshness off him and coming back a furlong is in his favour. Some of his form last year with Willie Mullins entitles him to go close here. Cornas may be better right-handed (all wins that way) Tchico Polos may not appreciate ground this soft and is better fresher, Take The Breeze surely needs further now and softish ground isn't ideal for Imsingingtheblues. French Opera is respected but might be tuning up for the Festival and at the prices Sports Line is preferred.
2 pts win Sports Line 13/2 Ladbrokes.
unpl 7/2 -2 pts.

In the Aon Chase at 12.45 I like Fair Along to give the favourite What A Friend something to think about. He is likely to get an easy lead here and is at his most dangerous under these conditions in small fields over fences. Paul Nicholls horse must give him 10lbs, and there may not be much between them.
2 pts win Fair Along 9/2 Boyles/Stan James
3rd 11/4 -2 pts.

The Totesport Trophy at 1.50 has an emasculated look and isn't as good a contest as last week. Furthermore a lot of the entries wouldn't have welcomed the rain that has fallen in the interim. For those reasons I think John Quinn's Recession Proof now offers value at 14/1. A classy Flat horse, he is lightly raced over hurdles and had a blowout on the all-weather over Christmas- this race has obviously been the target for some time.
2 pts win 1 pt place Recession Proof 14/1 Stan James.
Won 12/1 +31.5 pts.

Boyne Hurdle Navan 13th Feb 2011

This race interests me tomorrow because I wouldn't have Voler La Vedette as short as the odds-compilers do tonight. For me she barely stays 2 1/2 miles on decent ground and I seriously doubt her ability to get home at this trip in deep ground tomorrow. Moskova needs time between races and is off to the paddocks and this may also come to soon for Footy Facts. Oscar Dan Dan is interesting but has had four races since mid December and is usually better fresh. I found it hard to split two- Shinrock Paddy and Rigour Back Bob, but prefer the latter off a longer break at a track he's won at before. He's consistent and being held up will suit as there's plenty of pace in the race. Hills and Boyles 13/2 is worthy of an each-way investment.
1 pt each way Rigour Back Bob 13/2 Hills, Boyles.
2nd 9/2 +0.6 pts.

Deloitte Novice Hurdle Sunday 6th Feb 2011

Going through Sunday's Leopardstown card this race caught my eye because I don't fully buy into the Zaidpour hype and he is likely to be a short price. I felt racing left-handed was a factor in his defeat the last day and his breeding also nags at me (full brother to Zaynar who turned a bit mulish eventually)
Likewise Hidden Universe didn't look entirely happy bearing left in his last Leopardstown win, continually edging and jumping right. He got away with it in poor maiden hurdle company but won't find it so easy in a Grade 1. The only other time he's gone left-handed at the highest level in the Festival Bumper he also flopped badly, seeming not to handle the track.
There won't be any lack of pace on here if they all run as Willie Mullins' Cottrelsbooley usually likes to set a strong pace and Hidden Universe is also ridden prominently. That makes me think that a horse for whom this trip is a minimum might not be too inconvenienced by Sunday's conditions and could find the leaders coming back to him late on- step forward Oscar's Well, who's demolition job of a reasonable Grade 1 field at Navan seems to have gone a little under the radar. That was over 2 1/2 miles but he was always moving well and the final time was good for the conditions, meriting a Topspeed rating of 131.
Of course Zaidpour or Hidden Universe could be the real deal as both had excuses the last day, but 10/1 about Jessie Harrington's solid performer who will relish every drop of rain that falls to increase the stamina test will do me.
1 pt each way Oscar's Well 10/1 Paddy Power.
Won 7/1 +12.5 pts

This blog is far from a complete record of my bets- the National Hunt season thread on Betfair contains most of them: http://community.betfair.com/go/forum/popupExtra?output_method=iframe

Thyestes Chase Gowran Park 20th Jan 2011

Pomme Tiepy is very short for a mare who has had 21 chase starts and who's holdup style is unlikely to suit this race.Agus a Vic also looks a bit exposed but could run into a place.Alpha Ridge jumps to his left and will cover an extra furlong around here.Telenor has no history of going well fresh and there's a suspicion he might be better left-handed over fences.You can expect to see the Midnight Club need this as they surely have an eye on his mark for the National.Whinstone Boy won it last year but might struggle to repeat off no less than a 20lbs higher mark.Bella Mana Mou has some kind of physical problem as her form and her jumping have gone to pot lately- you'd love to buy her cheap and send her to the chiropractor.Stewart's House has to prove to me that he stays 3 miles.Will Jamie Run is an interesting outsider at a huge price- he caught my eye in the Kerry National on ground quicker than he'd have liked but hasn't really gone on from that. He didn't run that badly in the Paddy Power, up in the van for a long way and I'll be looking to back him prerace on Betfair and get my stake back in-running as I can see him going well for a long way- I'm still not sure he stays 3 miles.
This is a poor renewal with a lot of exposed and moderate horses, but one sticks out as being in form, well handicapped and facing ideal conditions. Rocco's Hall was well punted for a 3m5f handicap at Fairyhouse and looke like collecting for a long way, travelling well up with the pace before putting in an extra stride at the last and dislodging Andrew Mac. It was a soft fall and he galloped away fine. There was a suspicion that he might have been coming to the end of his stamina there so the drop back to 3 miles on deep ground could be perfect- his best hurdles form was under those conditions. Raised 2lbs for Fairyhouse he's still 13lbs below his best hurdles mark. Young Mangan takes off 5lbs, he won't be any hindrance having ridden a lovely race on Givemeabuzz at Tramore on New Year's Day.The only other one that interests me is Conor O'Dwyer's Hangover, who's Gowran form figures read 212, including when second in this last year. He didn't show a lot in the Paddy Power but the combination of a return to going right-handed and first time cheekpieces could be enough to spark him back to life.
3 pts win 1 pt place Rocco's Hall 14/1 Boylesports
1 pt each way Hangover 14/1 Coral.
Race postponed, Rocco's Hall eventually balloted out- stakes returned. Hangover unplaced 8/1 loss 2 pts.

Munster National Limerick Sunday 10th Oct

Three miles around Greenmount Park needs a blend of quick jumping and stamina which gives previous course winners an advantage. As such, one who may have slipped under the radar a little this year is Michael Hourigan's Mossbank. He hasn't been seen since Punchestown 2008 presumably sustaining a significant injury, but the handicapper has dropped him a good chunk since and the fact that MH has declared him for two handicaps (late non-runner in the Kerry National) for his comeback suggests he thinks he is reasonably weighted. The icing on the cake is his record fresh- on his first two starts after a break of more than 3 months his form figures are 101112112 (6/9) with all of his wins coming right-handed. At 20/1 in places he looks well overpriced.
2.5 pts win, 1.5 pts place Mossbank 20/1 William Hill/Stan James NRNB 1/4 1234.
Non-runner 0


This blog has been neglected during the summer- for a full list of bets go into the Betfair Antepost forum and look at the Ante Post jumps and Flat threads- over 100 pts profit on the Flat in 2010 to date.