This tends to be won by an unexposed improving type and 4 year olds have the best record. Hanoverian Baron is a worthy favourite after an impressive win at York's Dante meeting in a fair time. He's about the right price at 5/1. Submariner bids to become another Mark Johnston horse to come out of a Royal Ascot handicap and win next time and he had a genuine excuse there as he could never get to the front as he likes to from his wide draw. Better drawn here he must go well as long as the leaders don't go too fast. Red Merlin won this last year but would be an unusual winner were he to follow up off a mark 8lbs higher.
My idea of the value is the 14/1 with the Tote about Thin Red Line. He had looked a progressive type before running in a 10 furlong handicap at Epsom at the Derby meeting. He finished third but the leaders (including him) went off too fast and the rest of them faded badly, so his run can be upgraded. He was beaten a nose in the 3 year old handicap at this meeting last year when trained by Ed Dunlop and was sold at the horses in training sales at the end of that season for 80,000 gns. He has continued to thrive for Michael Dods and looks a shade overpriced. I'll be risking 1 pt.* I wouldn't back him each way as there are set to be a maximum of 16 runners and it's a near certainty something else will come out to leave the bookies paying only 3 places, poor value.
* Bets on this blog will be from 1 pt to 5 pts and a seasonal tally will be kept.
Unpl 14/1 -1 pt.
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