Monday, July 5, 2010

Falmouth Stakes Newmarket Wednesday

In order to stay ahead in this game it pays to look beyond the obvious. Lily Langtry beat the top miling fillies handsomely in the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot but as others have pointed out Ascot form isn't working out that well elsewhere since the new course was laid a few years ago. A filly that may do better over the galloping expanses of the July course is Mick Channon's Music Show, available at 10/1 with Bet 365 or 9/1 elsewhere. She hasn't had the rub of the green in any of her last three runs after winning the Nell Gwyn: In the draw-affected 1,000 Guineas she led home the fillies who raced up the centre, she got going too late in the Irish version but finished a close third and she had a bad trip in the Coronation being stuck very wide all the way and being given too much to do before running on well to finish fourth. If you look where she was turning in at Ascot compared to the winner that run starts to look a lot better and there will be no hard luck stories at Newmarket when her obvious stamina should come into play- I'd hope Richard Hughes rides her a lot closer to the pace and commits for home 2 out. I'll be risking a point.
Won 13/2 +10 pts.
Running Total +9 pts.

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