There seems to be a kind of schizophrenia affecting some Irish trainers lately. First connections of Sizing Europe, one of the best two milers seen for the past few years make two separate attempts to turn him into a three miler with predictable results then Paul Nolan seems intent on running the top class 2 1/2 miler Noble Prince repeatedly over 2 miles, missing an eminently winnable race in Clonmel then stating the 2 miler at Leopardstown to be the horse's next target.
Finally today Rubi Light gives a bold aggressive performance over 2 1/2 in the John Durkan and Robbie Hennessy wants to try him over three at Christmas on what is likely to be heavy ground at Leopardstown in the Lexus.If you watch today's race back take a look at where dour stayer Joncol is three out and where he finishes and tell me Rubi Light will improve for another half mile. He may well stay in time but next year would be time enough after winning a Ryanair first. Am I talking my book? You betcha.
My basic point? If you have a horse who is performing at the top level under its optimum conditions, why try and make it into something it's not? And if you try once and fail, take the hint!
Sunday, December 11, 2011
Wednesday, April 6, 2011
Aintree Foxhunters
5 pm
I thought it would be interesting to detail the process that goes into finding a bet in a race like this. This afternoon (Wednesday) after getting the declarations I went through the field and made the following notes on the likely contenders and priced them up:
Baby Run bold jumping front-running style ideal. Negative that had a hard race at Chelt and might have been beginning to tire when fell, also previously fell here- likely to be put in short, would oppose at 5/1 or less.
Fort View exciting youngster has been held up slight negative, jockey a plus query enough experience for this- would consider win only at 10/1+ Heron's Well front-runner big plus, going OK when fell Chelt drop back in trip a positive fences an unknown who rides? owner's son usually replacement might be a positive. anything above 8/1 interesting.
Ice Tea bold jumping front runner trip a possible negative as stays much further jockey OK, 10/1+ of interest.
Kilty Storm races prom, good pilot, 2nd Aintree/Punch 2010, won 2 pts this ssn- possibly not quite classy enough? 14/1+ of some interest. Massini Man good seq in Hun Chases unpl Kim Muir, races prom- jumping a big worry 20/1+ wouldn't back.
Moncadou second last yr (backed him) good pilot, coming slowly to hand, chance 14/1+ would interest.
Offshore Account led the 09 National a long way jumping well fancied Topham 2010 faded disappointingly modest form since, new stable- hard to fancy 25/1+
Silver Adonis last yrs winner mod form sice tho going OK when fell Kempton small chance 20/1
Turko won well Newbury, some of the best form on offer, however didn't seem to enjoy this in 08 National. If takes to it this time big chance, big if. 8/1 of interest but better in-running play if jumps the first few well.
Van Ness 4th last yr mod pointing form this- small chance 25/1. I will edit this post later when I see prices and detail any bets then made.
9pm Most bookmakers have priced the race and I have a fairly clear idea what I want to do. This is the frustrating period for me in the past few years since almost all my online accounts (and the wife's and the best friends!) were restricted or closed down. Now I can only look at prices overnight and hope they survive to shop time. Heron's Well looks well overpriced at 14/1 with Victor Chandler but I have no chance of getting that. 12/1 with Paddy Power will do and I'll be in a shop early to try and get that each way. Meantime all I can do is have a nibble on Betfair win only. When I reviewed the Foxhunter tape he didn't actually make a mistake, merely stumbled after the feance and his rider fell off. He galloped on and "won" the race so will probably have had a nicer experience than the favourite. Hopefully someone will get yer man to ride a bit longer tomorrow and try and stay on board. I will also back Ice Tea each way at Paddy Power's 12/1 if I can get it. He looks sure to be up in the van and 1/4 first 4 places is a gift. I may have a smaller Betfair tickle on Fort View who trades around 18/1.
10.30am
Off work today so doing my own betting. On days when I'm at work I have three or four people who put on for me in the shops. First stop this morning was Paddy Power to get 12/1 Heron's Well (2 pts each way) and 12/1 Ice Tea (1 pt each way).
4.45 pmOne selection fell, the other brought down- the joys of punting over the National fences. Repeat the above a few hundred times and you have a year in the life of a punter!
I thought it would be interesting to detail the process that goes into finding a bet in a race like this. This afternoon (Wednesday) after getting the declarations I went through the field and made the following notes on the likely contenders and priced them up:
Baby Run bold jumping front-running style ideal. Negative that had a hard race at Chelt and might have been beginning to tire when fell, also previously fell here- likely to be put in short, would oppose at 5/1 or less.
Fort View exciting youngster has been held up slight negative, jockey a plus query enough experience for this- would consider win only at 10/1+ Heron's Well front-runner big plus, going OK when fell Chelt drop back in trip a positive fences an unknown who rides? owner's son usually replacement might be a positive. anything above 8/1 interesting.
Ice Tea bold jumping front runner trip a possible negative as stays much further jockey OK, 10/1+ of interest.
Kilty Storm races prom, good pilot, 2nd Aintree/Punch 2010, won 2 pts this ssn- possibly not quite classy enough? 14/1+ of some interest. Massini Man good seq in Hun Chases unpl Kim Muir, races prom- jumping a big worry 20/1+ wouldn't back.
Moncadou second last yr (backed him) good pilot, coming slowly to hand, chance 14/1+ would interest.
Offshore Account led the 09 National a long way jumping well fancied Topham 2010 faded disappointingly modest form since, new stable- hard to fancy 25/1+
Silver Adonis last yrs winner mod form sice tho going OK when fell Kempton small chance 20/1
Turko won well Newbury, some of the best form on offer, however didn't seem to enjoy this in 08 National. If takes to it this time big chance, big if. 8/1 of interest but better in-running play if jumps the first few well.
Van Ness 4th last yr mod pointing form this- small chance 25/1. I will edit this post later when I see prices and detail any bets then made.
9pm Most bookmakers have priced the race and I have a fairly clear idea what I want to do. This is the frustrating period for me in the past few years since almost all my online accounts (and the wife's and the best friends!) were restricted or closed down. Now I can only look at prices overnight and hope they survive to shop time. Heron's Well looks well overpriced at 14/1 with Victor Chandler but I have no chance of getting that. 12/1 with Paddy Power will do and I'll be in a shop early to try and get that each way. Meantime all I can do is have a nibble on Betfair win only. When I reviewed the Foxhunter tape he didn't actually make a mistake, merely stumbled after the feance and his rider fell off. He galloped on and "won" the race so will probably have had a nicer experience than the favourite. Hopefully someone will get yer man to ride a bit longer tomorrow and try and stay on board. I will also back Ice Tea each way at Paddy Power's 12/1 if I can get it. He looks sure to be up in the van and 1/4 first 4 places is a gift. I may have a smaller Betfair tickle on Fort View who trades around 18/1.
10.30am
Off work today so doing my own betting. On days when I'm at work I have three or four people who put on for me in the shops. First stop this morning was Paddy Power to get 12/1 Heron's Well (2 pts each way) and 12/1 Ice Tea (1 pt each way).
4.45 pmOne selection fell, the other brought down- the joys of punting over the National fences. Repeat the above a few hundred times and you have a year in the life of a punter!
Friday, March 25, 2011
Dubai Golden Shaheen Meydan Saturday.
I started looking at this race after James Knight tweeted that he had backed Euroears at 5/1 as he's a good judge. As I went through it however I was struck by the amount of pace in the field: Rocket Man, Charlie's Moment, Dim Sum, Euroears and Kinsale King all want to lead or sit very handy and I can easily see the pace collapsing late. If it does a closer could well pick up the pieces and Green Birdie could be the one to benefit. At 20/1 tonight he's definitely overpriced to place and if getting a good tow here he could even cause a shock- he's beaten the favourite before in a Grade 1. 1.5 pts each way Green Birdie 20/1 Paddy Power 1/4 123. 4th 16/1 -3 pts.
Thursday, March 17, 2011
County Hurdle Friday
My shortlist here is
Secret Dancer (backed at 22/1 Corals)
Final Approach (12/1 Ladbrokes)
Ciceron (should get 25/1 in the morning).
Final Approach won 10/1, others unplaced.
Secret Dancer (backed at 22/1 Corals)
Final Approach (12/1 Ladbrokes)
Ciceron (should get 25/1 in the morning).
Final Approach won 10/1, others unplaced.
Wednesday, March 16, 2011
Byrne Group Plate Thursday
One that stands out here is Nigel Twiston-Davies Crescent Island who has good course form having been third in last year's Jewson. Three miles on softish ground was not his bag at Kempton and these conditions will suit much better. The 20/1 available tonight is decent value each way.
Non-runner.
Non-runner.
Kim Muir Thursday
One that caught my eye straight away this evening was Phillip Hobbs' Mostly Bob. He was an early faller in the Racing Post Chase but it wasn't really his fault as he collided with another runner. Conditions here will suit really well and 16/1 should be taken each way. PU 12/1.
Pertemps Final Thursday
I went early on this race backing three horses before shop closing time tonight. The first is a big price but after Henry De Bromhead's last two days I wouldn't want to be laying too much 33/1 each way about his Quieros Bleu. He ran in the Leopardstown qualifier staying on steadily from the back then had a sighter for this over an inadequate 2 miles at Naas. He will much prefer the good ground here and has a definite chance. I had Rivage D'Or down as a bit of a rogue until he won decisively at Naas the last day and I've lost count of the number of similar nearly horses who improve massively after a confidence-boosting win. I took 12/1 tonight with Hills. Finally David Pipe's plot horse Chartreux can only get shorter and is worth backing at tonight's 7/1. 5th 33/1, unpl 10/1, unpl 6/1.
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