Monday, March 26, 2018

Cheltenham ruminations and resolutions

If you stand still in this game you're dead, so it's imperative to take stock frequently and find ways to improve. I managed to win a tiny amount over the four days of Cheltenham which in itself doesn't bother me (4 days even 4 busy ones like that is a tiny sample of a year's betting) but I did feel that I could have done things better.
The major change this year was 48 hour declarations for everything (previously only the Grade 1s)
What this meant in practice was that markets for the final declared fields were available 2 evenings before. I'm not sure if these prices were laid in shops that evening but they were certainly available the following morning and from my point of view that's when I have to be ready to act next year. I found the day of race markets pretty much bang on in the conditions races, unsurprisingly, as they had had 2 days to converge and eliminate any ricks. I'll be taking  a leaf out of Tony Keenan's book next year and I'll be on the conditions races like a tramp on chips the week before, playing NRNB and ready to act on anything out of line after decs.
The other major area of interest is NRNB on all races from the time all the firms embrace it. It means laying out a lot of money but it's worth it if you have 6-8 horses with multiple targets that you know must shorten in whatever race they end up in. The one I really wanted to be with this year was Whiskey Sour, but I didn't see the County coming. (Willie unpredictable, how predictable) I did get on but only after decs. I spent fortunes backing Sire De Berlais and Early Doors for everything bar the Boat Race for all the good it did me but in another year 2 or 3 of these click and it's well worth it. The late switchers are where the real gold is though: the Douvan shennanigans a case in point- anyone with positions in the Champion Chase and Ryanair could have done very well out of that.
Another thing I realised is not to be put off by the ground if it's the only reason not to be with a horse- it's an overplayed factor. Horses like Balko Des Flos, Mohayyed and Tiger Roll went off much bigger than they should have because of connections' ground fears- if the price is big enough you can take that chance.
On ante post, I'm also going to have a rethink. this year large positions I had in the championship races laying horses arguably stopped me forming new opinions nearer the race- though they made a profit I'm not sure it was worth it especially as it ties up a lot of funds for several months.
This year I learnt to be even more flexible about "trends" to the point of perhaps binning them altogether. Native River couldn't win the Gold Cup because he had been beaten the year before, Shattered Love couldn't win a novice chase because she was a mare, Balko Des Flos didn't have a course win- it's mostly backfitted nonsense and I think I'll ditch the lot next Festival.
Looking back, I don't feel I did too much wrong- I had 18 horses placed all at double figure prices, so it just feels like variance won this year. That's not as good as it sounds by the way, as I'm usually playing 2-3 horses per race.
Lastly, considering it was the first year I didn't attend (excepting the abandoned year and a year in Australia) since the early '90s, I didn't miss it. I'm not sure if that says more about me, or the modern Festival.

4 comments:

  1. interesting you mention the ground fears for some horses.i backed a few ground dependent horses nrnb and they were basically beat before the start.and they were way bigger prices than i backed them at. i also feel the nrnb option leads to very skinny prices and better prices are available on the morning.anyway.roll on aintree!!

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  2. Fair point- it's a double-edged sword, NRNB- it gets more valuable the closer you get to the event as ground conditions etc are known. There's a case for saving most of your NRNB until the last 10 days or so.

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  3. The late switchers are where the real gold is though: the Douvan shennanigans a case in point- anyone with positions in the Champion Chase and Ryanair could have done very well out of that.

    As I'm not the greatest punter can you elaborate on this? I'm presuming it means you have better prices on opposition and can trade out successfully?

    On another point: if you are representative of "smart betting" that uses every available opportunity to protect your capital I presume it is this practise that bookmakers will mostly try to avoid?

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  4. At various stages Douvan was a short price for the Ryanair when it looked like he was going there, and his price for the Champion Chase varied from short to 350/1 at different stages. The markets for both were distorted at different times as a result.
    NRNB is definitely a loss leader and almost a guaranteed win for those willing to tie up capital playing multiple options for fancied runners.

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