Spinal Research Handicap Chase Tuesday

Formerly the William Hill I've had some good success here down the years as there are some quite strong patterns which seem to repeat more often than not. It is very hard to carry a big weight here so I'll be concentrating on those rated 143 and below. The two I like at the moment are Pearlysteps and Reve de Sivola. Pearlysteps represents Henry Daly who has previous in this race and in the festival handicap chases generally. This horse was third to The Giant Bolster at Cheltenham last time out despite collecting most of the Prestbury Park fences and bringing them with him. That was over 2m5f, but this trip should allow him more time to get into a jumping rhythm and he's a strong stayer. I have no idea if he runs but if he does the 33/1 available with a run as I type will be far too big. Reve De Sivola is more obvious- he was second to Peddler's Cross at the Festival last year and has several nice bits of course form over fences since. I can forgive him a poor display last time as he just didn't take to the Sandown fences and if you can get any 16/1 with a run he's worth a bet. 10/3/11 Pearlysteps goes for the 4 mile chase, poor decision I think as that looks a very hot contest off levels- would have had a much better chance in this. Looking at the entries again at the 6 day stage I was surprised to see Ogee left in. He ran in the Grmthorpe Chase last weekend for which he was well fancied given his good record fresh but performed like a horse who needed that first run. He was a good third in this race last year and has previous form running well when brought back to the track quickly (it will be 10 days). I've backed him each way at 20/1 with my refunded Pearlysteps money. Reve de Sivola 3rd 9/1, Pearlysteps/Ogee NR, money back.

Arkle Chase Tuesday

The market for this is now fairly mature but I will give you my thoughts on the main contenders and tell you what I've done so far. Medermit was off my radar for this after his first couple of fencing efforts when he didn't convince at Aintree and he refused at Huntingdon. He's got back on track since however winning at Plumpton, just getting outstayed at Cheltenham over 2m5f and just lasting home over slightly shorter at Sandown, when I thought he was idling in front and always too good for Captain Chris. His jumping that day was much better and I backed him after that race for this at what looked a too-big 8/1. The current 3/1 makes no appeal but he's the most likely winner as the classiest of them over hurdles who has now learnt to jump. Finian's Rainbow is undefeated over fences but has looked anything but a natural in his three small-field wins. It was a horror show around Warwick the last day and he'll need to jump an awful lot better. Add to that the fact that he likes to lead, a major negative in this race and the fact that he's come up short at the top level over hurdles and I'm against him here. The problem with Ghizao is that he may not have the hurdles class to lie up with them here- his jumping is fine. I also don't like his long layoff, but he could easily place. I think similar comments apply to Realt Dubh whose Irish form is solid but who might need it to come up soft to slow the others down a bit. I'm very negative on Captain Chris who for me needs to go right-handed and will be better at 2 1/2 miles plus. I can't see him winning this but am very interested in him as a long term prospect over further. I'm not too keen on any outsiders at the moment but will update if that changes. all in all if you haven't gotten involved yet I'd make this a watching race- if you must have a bet back Medermit. 10/3/11 The field has been whittled down at the six day stage and we will probably only have a dozen runners. For those of you interested in trading on Betfair, Dan Breen looks the likely leader here in first time blinkers- he could still be in front coming down the hill and trade a good bit shorter than the current 16/1- he wouldn't be the worst back to lay angle but it's hard to see him holding on to win, especially given the poor record of front-runners in this race. I've laid off a good chunk of my Medermit bet on Betfair at just over 3/1. For me he's plenty short enough now. 4th 11/4.

Champion Hurdle Tuesday

This looks like being the race of the Festival and a much stronger contest than last year when Binocular beat Khyber Kim. Binocular is an enigma- brilliant on his day like last year's Champion when he hurdled fluently and pulled clear up the hill. Ponderous on other days, like when beaten at Newbury and struggling home at Sandown. If he turns up in the same form as last year he's a big player, but could still be vulnerable to one of the young improvers. I can't have him at 3/1. Menorah is immensely likeable and has a fantastic attitude- Cue Card is running all over him in the International Hurdle between the last 2 yet he runs away from him up the hill. The doubts are that he hasn't run since that race in December and his hurdling could be better- he's inclined to fiddle one or two and can make mistakes. 5/1 is about right but wouldn't excite me. I won't be popular but I'm against the "Irish banker" Hurricane Fly for a couple of reasons. the most important of these is his jumping- he edges to the right at every hurdle- no problem when you're tootling around Leopardstown on soft ground but a major handicap in a Championship race at always-turning Cheltenham. Secondly his trainer has expressed concern as to how he will handle the whole Cheltenham hulabaloo being a highly strung individual. His lack of form at the track is another big worry. All in all no bargain at 5/1. Peddler's Cross is following the Hardy Eustace and Istabraq route from the old Sun Alliance 2m5f novice to the follwing year's Champion. I really like his attitude and think his price is a little bigger than it should be because everyone assumes that as a horse who stays 2 1/2 miles well he will get outpaced. I don't believe that to be true and feel he has a great chance of giving the North a Champion hurdler. If you see any 6/1 with a run between now and post time then snap it up. Oscar Whiskey would come into it on soft ground but I feel his jumping might let him down on good to soft or better. I can't entertain Dunguib- he still hasn't learnt to jump properly and will probably make at least 2 mistakes, too many to win this. Wasted year when he should have been jumping fences. Of the outsiders Thousand Stars interests me most as he's been to the track and performed winning the County Hurdle. He was sacrificed in the Irish Champion making the running but still wasn't beaten far. He is still available at 50/1 in places with a run 12.5/1 the place part of that looks very generous to me. 13/3/11 The news that Binocular misses the gig is good for us but sad nonetheless. I'm sure better judges than I will dissect this affair thoroughly in the coming days but my gut feeling is that the public should have been kept informed that there was a potential problem- that way noone would be trading the race in the dark as they were. Peddlers Cross 2nd 9/2, Thousand Stars 4th 33/1.

Albert Bartlett Novice Hurdle

I backed Join Together for this some time ago and still fancy him. You need a dour stayer with track form to win this and he ticks those boxes. Others I will play tomorrow probably on Betfair are Our Island and Teaforthree. PU 8/1, unpl 33/1, unpl 28/1.

Cross Country Handicap Chase Tuesday

Looking at the entries for this it's not that difficult to whittle them down as you can virtually put a line through those without experience of this type of racing. Also, people tend to forget that it's a handicap. With his powers perhaps waning a little it's a big ask for Garde Champetre to defy topweight, a task which was beyond him last year. As such it's worth looking for a horse who has been here before and could still be on the up. I think I've found one in Another Jewel, fourth last year as a callow (in cross-country terms) 8yo and off a handy 10-4 this year. After his exploits here in March he ran a close third on unfavourable terms to l'Ami in the la Touche at Punchestown before taking a valuable cross country prize in France at Lion d'Angers. A distant second in a similar French race in September he then had a break before having a blowout over an inadequate 2 1/2 miles at Gowran Park over regulation fences a couple of weeks ago, presumably to leave him spot on for this. I've been steadily building a position on him at 25/1 for the past few days with Ladbrokes and Boyles which has now evaporated but he's arguably an even better bet now at 20/1 NRNB with the independents. unpl 12/1.

Queen Mother Champion Chase Wednesday

This race revolves around Master Minded- is he the horse he was a couple of years ago or has he deteriorated into an ordinary mortal who can be beaten? I'd be in the latter camp and though he could bag another Champion he won't be carrying my cash at 9/4 or so. Big Zeb is the big hope of the Irish to regain the crown he won so well last year. I'm a bit aginst him also on the grounds of age- he's now 10 and won't be getting any faster 10/3 or so is not an appealing price for me. Given that I feel the front 2 can be taken on, there must be some value lurking here. I have backed 2 already and will be adding a third in the coming days. Somersby is my main bet each-way. He has quality Festival form (third in a Supreme, second in an Arkle) and gave Master Minded a real fright at Ascot the last day, staying on over the last 2 to almost mug him on the line. To a man the cognoscenti wanted him to run in the Ryanair but I reckon Henrietta Knight is dead right to stick to a stiff 2 miles with him and go for gold. I find it hard to see him out of the first 3 and have had a good each way bet at 8/1. The current 7/1 is still value. French Opera ducked the Arkle last year to run in the Grand Annual where he put up a big performance under a welter burden- there's little doubt he'd have been in the Arkle shake up. I managed to thieve a bit of 40/1 each way fairly recently (the story of this I'd have to relate in private) but I couldn't put you off investing even at 25/1 now. My final interest each way will be Sizing Europe who I will back at the 14/1 still available with one of the firms going NRNB. Forget the patchy look of his form this season- an abortive attempt to make a speed horse into a Gold Cup contender predictably failed and if Harry De Bromhead can get him to the start in similar form to last year when he blitzed them in the Arkle he's no 14/1 shot. 11/3/11 A roller coaster of emotions with this race in the past week from despair when it seemed Somersby might be switched to the Ryanair to joy when Hen Knight confirmed him for this last night. On Sizing Europe I have one nagging doubt- if I'm So Lucky runs he could take Sizing on for the lead which wouldn't be good- this is a race I'll be watching closely in-running as if the two of them duel for the lead they may set it up for a finisher (which would be in Somersby's favour) Somersby unpl 8/1, French Opera unpl 22/1, WON 10/1

Cheltenham Festival

For the past number of years I have sent an email to a carefully chosen elite with my thoughts on the Festival. I have decided to put these thoughts up on this blog this year. They will appear in stages as I get time to update them, so keep logging in every few days and you'll get the lastest.
I will endeavour to give a precis of what my main thoughts are on each race from a betting perspective, which horses I want to be with or against and a synopsis of the bets I have had or am intending to have.Feel free to leave comments.