Low Sun (GB)

The debate about jumping obstacles when the sun shines has predictably reared its head again with the return of better class National Hunt racing. The Old Roan chase was recently reduced to a six fence farce at Aintree, a track that seems particularly vulnerable to this desecration.

I have been described as having "callous" and "strange"views on this subject by some of the more "welfare minded" which annoys me as it's far from the truth, hence this explanation of my position.

 It was revealed during that same Aintree meeting where a hurdle race was run with obstacles omitted despite no sun being visible, that the final arbiter on this is the "jockeys' liaison officer" who hangs around down at the start and asks the jockeys if they want to jump the fences or hurdles or not. This is obviously not sustainable: jockeys are self interested and will obviously jump as few obstacles to collect their riding fee as they are allowed to. My beef with the current situation is that decisions on what to jump and what to omit are made with zero evidence base, on the hoof, by conflicted parties. My questions are:

1.Why is this something we never heard about until the last 10-15 years? In my younger days following the jumps I never recall anyone suggesting a fence or hurdle be omitted. There are two possible explanations for this: Either we were willfully ignorant putting horses and jockeys at significant risk, or the risk wasn't actually that great. The only way to discern this is by proper research. If it can be conclusively demonstrated that jumping obstacles in the sunshine puts man and beast at significantly increased risk of injury then of course it must be mitigated. Comparing periods pre and post mitigation measures would be one very obvious metric to assess. To my knowledge nobody has yet done this- all the evidence I've heard thus far has been anecdotal.

2. If jumping obstacles is so dangerous when the sun shines, why are obstacles never omitted in France? They certainly have more sun than we do on these islands and they jump a far greater variety of obstacles. Again they are either negligent, putting their participants at unacceptable risk, or the risk itself is acceptable or negligible. Only proper scientific research will differentiate this. 

3.What about other equine disciplines-If you're out hunting do you follow the scent or quarry over an obstacle if the sun is in your eyes or find the nearest gate? Do they omit obstacles at Badminton or Burghley?

4. Is the risk linked to sun angle, so we can say it's only significant in the depth of winter or are clerks justified in omitting obstacles into late spring and early summer, as is beginning to happen?

All I'm asking is that before we destroy a sport I love on the altar of safetyism, that we do so armed with properly collated evidence.  british and Irish racing authorities should tackle this issue together.                    A working group made up of experienced horsemen and women and others with relevant scientific and veterinary knowledge should be tasked with collecting data over twelve months or more from all over the world in a variety of disciplines and conditions to first define and quantify the problem, then suggest mitigation if needed and rigid protocols around implementation of same. This should include trying to communicate any measures taken to the betting public in a timely manner and a system of allowing bets to be voided if a certain number of obstacles are omitted. Anyone having a bet on the Old Roan chase was in effect robbed, as the contest which took place bore no resemblance to what they were entitled to expect when the majority of bets were placed. 

Punting Evolution

Some thoughts on punting evolution occurred to me recently which are certainly true in my case and may have a wider application.
It strikes me that punters go through various stages of this. When you start betting, unless you are born with unusual skill and judgement, it's all a bit random and you don't have a great sense of discretion, value or control. Most people lose and lose quite badly. This is in itself not a bad thing as it teaches you the dangers of the dark side- uncontrolled random punting will send you broke. I've spoken before of being 16 when my Dad left me the number of his bookie during Cheltenham so I could ring up and have a bet. He knew exactly what would happen and returned to a chastened soul who owed a large multiple of his weekly pocket money. I still think the shame of that was the best lesson I ever learnt.
The second phase on the journey for anyone serious about it has to begin with record keeping. It's far too easy to kid yourself that you're "breaking even" when the reality is usually much different. In my case it took some years of looking down pages of odds-on multiples with small profit or loss before the realization that short prices don't really pay the bills. From recording comes insight and the beginnings of the search for a profitable method. Everyone's paths diverge at this point but the keys are surely finding something you enjoy and can develop a detailed knowledge of to bet on, as after all you are going to have to be a better judge than 95% of the betting population to gain a worthwhile edge. In my case the first step was to stem the losses mostly caused by ill discipline, chasing and interest bets until I could generally eke out a small yearly profit. It took a long time more to gain a decent edge and to become confident of that edge.
Another fair generalization is that it's easier to gain an edge in relatively illiquid markets. I did a lot of ante post betting 20 years ago because if you make a study of the major races on the Flat and Jumps over the year it's not that difficult to spot prices that are out of line. The same goes for overnight prices- like everyone I had a full portfolio of accounts back in the day and picking value from the best ante post and early prices was quite feasible. It's easy enough to spot those punters on Twitter who are at this stage, with their overnight blogs and tips. Indeed, most journalists never get beyond this stage because they don't have to.
Again, inevitably, if you are successful at the above as a normal individual, you begin to run into problems. Accounts begin getting restricted and sometimes closed. This is a turning point for many people. You can become disillusioned and sometimes get turned off the whole game: how unfair is it that the medium you have spent so long studying in order to gain an edge (PhDs are often easier) is now being closed off to you by those pesky bookmakers? You can start using friends and family to get on and start wearing down shoe leather going around shops. Agents can be an outlet. All of these approaches have major downsides, getting paid for one!
Logically, sooner or later you must conclude that the only sustainable way to make it pay is by gaining an edge in highly liquid markets, that is the exchanges close to the off. This approach takes a completely different mindset and it's the mindset for me which is the most important. You must believe you can win and you must be a slave to value. It's no good fancying a price the night before then becoming frustrated when it evaporates. The only way is to price the possible outcomes of an event and wait for the live odds. If something is offered at significantly above your price, you play. If not, you pass. You need patience, discipline and flexibility- it's as far as possible away from the deterministic approach used by the majority who are trying to back the winner.
The final stage as I see it is that of scaling up. Again it's relatively easy to make a small profit but the challenge is once you're confident in your edge to ramp it up in order to win sums that will actually make a difference in your life. Hand in hand with this must go bankroll management- scared money loses and it's vital to put by plenty to allow for the inevitable drawdowns. This point is one that I personally was slow on until fairly recently. I'd play from whatever cash happened to be in the bank at the time but it's an absolute certainty that your betting behavior changes depending on the reserves available to you. When I had a decent win during this current year a friend asked what I was going to buy with the winnings- he was a little bemused when I explained that it was going to make my bank stronger. When your bank is properly funded then starts throwing off some decent returns you can start spending it. I read a blog recently of a winning punter in Australia who is operating on a completely different level to me. He turns over hundreds of thousands every day. Most of what he said was common snse but one quote stuck with me: "Naturally my bet sizes are tiny against bankroll". This is crucial, I believe.
He also undergoes a constant process of reviewing his approach and modifying it month on month and year on year. It's vital to keep adapting as the market does to maintain what ever edge you have.

Cheltenham ruminations and resolutions

If you stand still in this game you're dead, so it's imperative to take stock frequently and find ways to improve. I managed to win a tiny amount over the four days of Cheltenham which in itself doesn't bother me (4 days even 4 busy ones like that is a tiny sample of a year's betting) but I did feel that I could have done things better.
The major change this year was 48 hour declarations for everything (previously only the Grade 1s)
What this meant in practice was that markets for the final declared fields were available 2 evenings before. I'm not sure if these prices were laid in shops that evening but they were certainly available the following morning and from my point of view that's when I have to be ready to act next year. I found the day of race markets pretty much bang on in the conditions races, unsurprisingly, as they had had 2 days to converge and eliminate any ricks. I'll be taking  a leaf out of Tony Keenan's book next year and I'll be on the conditions races like a tramp on chips the week before, playing NRNB and ready to act on anything out of line after decs.
The other major area of interest is NRNB on all races from the time all the firms embrace it. It means laying out a lot of money but it's worth it if you have 6-8 horses with multiple targets that you know must shorten in whatever race they end up in. The one I really wanted to be with this year was Whiskey Sour, but I didn't see the County coming. (Willie unpredictable, how predictable) I did get on but only after decs. I spent fortunes backing Sire De Berlais and Early Doors for everything bar the Boat Race for all the good it did me but in another year 2 or 3 of these click and it's well worth it. The late switchers are where the real gold is though: the Douvan shennanigans a case in point- anyone with positions in the Champion Chase and Ryanair could have done very well out of that.
Another thing I realised is not to be put off by the ground if it's the only reason not to be with a horse- it's an overplayed factor. Horses like Balko Des Flos, Mohayyed and Tiger Roll went off much bigger than they should have because of connections' ground fears- if the price is big enough you can take that chance.
On ante post, I'm also going to have a rethink. this year large positions I had in the championship races laying horses arguably stopped me forming new opinions nearer the race- though they made a profit I'm not sure it was worth it especially as it ties up a lot of funds for several months.
This year I learnt to be even more flexible about "trends" to the point of perhaps binning them altogether. Native River couldn't win the Gold Cup because he had been beaten the year before, Shattered Love couldn't win a novice chase because she was a mare, Balko Des Flos didn't have a course win- it's mostly backfitted nonsense and I think I'll ditch the lot next Festival.
Looking back, I don't feel I did too much wrong- I had 18 horses placed all at double figure prices, so it just feels like variance won this year. That's not as good as it sounds by the way, as I'm usually playing 2-3 horses per race.
Lastly, considering it was the first year I didn't attend (excepting the abandoned year and a year in Australia) since the early '90s, I didn't miss it. I'm not sure if that says more about me, or the modern Festival.

No Mas, Michael.

I have been attending the Cheltenham Festival since going with my Dad in the early 1990s. I've hardly missed a year since. Yet I came out of my now normal two day pilgrimage on the Wednesday night last year and decided I wasn't going back.
My first year attending may have been 1992 (painful memories of my hero Carvills Hill's eclipse) but the fabric of my Festival memories goes back a lot further- to my early teens when I first got interested in racing and began to partake in the endless winter debates about Champion Hurdles, Gold Cups and Champion Chases. Speculation about Irish horses going over to take on the might of England kept us enthused in the long winter evenings and tales of heroes past like Vincent O'Brien's domination of the Gloucester Hurdle, Paddy Sleator's daring raids and Mick O'Toole's tilts at the ring filled many a Friday evening at Uncle Jim's.
It was simpler them, three perfect days, three championship races and nowhere to hide. All that changed utterly when the jamboree expanded to four days. Now we had races at intermediate distances- the Ryanair, the JLT, three novice hurdles, mares races, a Cross Country for God's sake. It was Quantitative Easing for racing- dilute the product and spread it thinner, no one will notice. Outwardly, they haven't. All four days are well attended, the focus on Cheltenham is arguably narrower than ever, the racing is still exciting. The Festival dollar in your pocket still buys what it always did- or does it?
Michael O'Leary was out front and centre this week pushing for another new Festival race- an intermediate distance Championship hurdle. In his argument he mused that the Gold Cup in 2016 was no poorer for the absence of the 176 rated Ryanair winner Vautour. All of the speculation that season after he was chinned on the line in the King George was around whether he would get the trip in the Gold Cup- it split people down the middle like a civil war. Then mere days before Cheltenham the news came that he was ducking the gig and taking the easier option over two miles five. Anyone who asserts that this didn't devalue that year's Gold Cup is a fool or a knave- I'm not sure which you are Michael but it's evens each of two.
The extra races have already torn the narrative of time, of champions- how good was Quevega? Annie Power? Could both have won multiple championship races against the boys? How many Bobsline/Noddy's Ryde clashes have we missed out on since the JLT? Can you name the last 4 winners of the Martin Pipe?
Why do I feel relaxed about missing out in March? It's no fun any more- I don't know what will run in which race, I don't really care who wins most of them and I no longer deem it worth the scrum and the expense. I will go back, but I'm not saying when.
If you're losing me from the March extravaganza you're losing a fair chunk of your previous diehards. In good times like this it may not matter, but when the next downturn comes your four days may start to look a litttle threadbare, both in terms of the "product" and the bottom line.

Irish Racing, because we're worth it.

Kevin Blake wrote a blog for Attheraces this week calling for, among other things, an expansion of the winter Dundalk programme and a second all weather track in Munster. I argued against this on Twitter but the constraints of 280 characters prompted this blog.
Irish Racing does entitlement like The Donald does hair and ego. The simple truth is that the Irish industry is blessed by being subsidized from the public purse every year. Betting turnover does not cover the cost of putting on racing. Calls for more racing, especially lower class Flat racing must be viewed through this prism.
Dundalk on a Friday night is one of Irish racing's success stories: it's getting good brand recognition through the Attheraces coverage with the two cheeky chappies and the horses and personalities there are becoming known to a wider audience. People bet on things they are familiar with- Dundalk on a Friday is becoming part of the fabric: you go down to the pub, watch it on the telly and have a few bets- what better way to kick off the weekend? Would Tipperary on a Tuesday night garner the same interest or betting turnover? Would betting turnover increase substantially as the number of 0-65 all weather handicaps ballooned?
They can do it in France, was the cry- ah yes, but they have a Tote monopoly and every penny of betting turnover is made to count. In our model we have to make do with the scraps from the Paddy Power table.
What our industry has to realise is that the only sustainable business model is one where it is self-financing. There is only so much rural employment guff successive governments will listen to when (inevitably) times get tougher. The current exchequer largesse is a low hanging fruit waiting to be picked by the next left-leaning coalition partner facing into a difficult budget with the media screaming about hundreds of patients on trolleys. If at that point we have another all weather track and a further bloated fixture list the pain of loss will be far worse.
The energies of those in our industry should be put into consolidating and selling what we have. The Irish Tote despite some success in promoting the Pick 6 is largely moribund and shows very little appetite for modernization or innovation. It needs root and branch reform to offer a real alternative to exchange betting and fixed odds. TV coverage is gold- the Friday night programme sells the product. We need more features on the people and horses who put on the show, even if the industry funds them itself. Ger Lyons' son recently produced a "day in the life" piece on his Dad which was excellent- that sort of human interest piece is what should be playing on Attheraces between the Friday races. Why aren't we inviting Luke and Jason over for a tour of Meath/North Dublin via Ado McGuinness, Garvan Donnelly and Demot McLoughlin?
If we get into a situation where the product generates enough betting turnover to pay for itself we can talk about more tracks and more fixtures. Until that we need to concentrate on selling what we have.

Day In The Life

Following on from my last post I thought it might interest people how the nuts and bolts of my new approach works these days.
Preparation for the next day's racing begins the day before as soon as possible after declarations, work permitting. Firstly I go through every card for "stats" qualifiers mainly using Horseracebase.com. This is a catch all term for various systems I am using based on statistics to systematically pinpoint overpriced horses. It could be a sire on a particular surface, a jockey/trainer combination or a trainer with a high strike rate with debutantes. To use a stat it must have: 1) At least 10 actual winners 2) A strike rate of 20% or very close to it 3) Profit. I don't get very interested unless there's a 50% ROI or close to it. People use stats with lower strike rates successfully but for me it increases the risk that the profit is simply chance and it takes too long to find out. Ideas for systems come from everywhere- sometimes a pundit on TV will quote a stat which sounds promising but usually when I run it through Horseracebase it doesn't stack up. If it satisfies the criteria above it goes in. It's a constant process of adding, pruning and removing systems as time goes on- what worked last year won't neccessarily work this.
 At any time I'll be running 20-30 systems on Horseracebase and they'll spit out anything up to 20 qualifiers on busy days. That's where the work starts, as I don't back them blind. I'll then look at each qualifier individually and ask the question-"has the market priced this horse correctly?" Usually if the horse is 5/1 or bigger the answer is "no" and it's a bet. I leave most of the shorter priced ones alone. I won't back all the bigger priced ones either as there may be a logical reason for eliminating them because of trip or ground concerns, or multiple qualifiers in a race.
If it's a bet the last decision is how to back it. In 90% of cases that's done by placing an SP bet on the exchange with a minimum price stipulation. That usually will be placed at 5/1 or more, depending on the nature of the race and the number of runners with chances. The more automatic this process is the better it works, so I try not to overthink it. I back qualifiers to level stakes regardless of price. If I decide the horse is likely to be well backed I may add it to the list to take an early price on the next morning.The above takes anything from 20 minutes on the average Monday to maybe an hour on a busy racing day.
The next phase of prep is on days where there's Irish racing. I'll go through each Irish race in the traditional "form" sense and make an attempt to price them if I'm interested enough in each particular contest.This analysis is different- I have notes on hundreds of Irish horses based on observing their races. I have a fair idea of their individual quirks and requirements which is my edge over the crowd.  I'll start to get an idea of horses I might be interested in the following day when prices are available to me and will write down possible bets and prices to beat. I may also get ideas about in-running bets like back to lay in running or lay to back. I automate this because with the ATR delay, live in-running betting is suicide. I might back a horse at 10 SP then put in progressive lays at 5, 4, 3  and 2 or even lower if I think it might trade short and get beat. Nora Batt was my highlight for this approach this summer!
In the evening I'll see how they've priced up the overnights- I can't have a bet at that stage but I'll have  a fair idea if my target price is likely to be available the next morning.
On raceday I get the shop bets done for me soon after opening time. I like to do multiples on days when I'm backing a fair few juicy priced horses as the Lucky 15 concession (3 times the odds on a single winner) is actually quite valuable. Most of punting feels like chiselling away for small returns at times so there's always the chance of a year transforming lift if 2 or 3 click. Multiples have a bad name but they're actually a great way to get around stake limits- a trick I learned from a really good UK punter I correspond with is that if I want to back a horse ante post, I'll keep sticking it in doubles or even trebles with my daily bets in the hope that one clicks- that way I can build a really nice ante post position relatively cheaply and under the radar.
Before racing I'll have a look at the exchange and see how the markets are shaping both in Ireland and in the races with stats qualifiers. If I have a solid stats bet that's trading much bigger than my price to beat (50%+) I'll add another half stake with that price as a minimum.
If I have time to watch racing live I'll keep an eye on the live market to see if anything I gave a chance to is drifting to a price I didn't expect and I'll stick in a bet at SP with a minimum stipulation.
For me, taking live prices doesn't work- I've found my sort of horse tends to drift and return better at SP. The danger of watching markets live is that you chase prices down and accept lower than you should- I have been that soldier. It's hard to see a horse start at 6.8 and win when you wanted 7, but over time it's good business. Sometimes if there's been a non-runner or a ground change I can make a logical argument for accepting  a shorter price but mostly you're better off letting the shorteners win and backing the drifters. I have very few bets at under 4/1 these days and I've practically given up laying horses above evens- I just can't stomach losing 4 or 5 times my stake in one hit and wiping out a good day. (The real truth is that I'm terrible at it and the stats don't lie)
The decision whether to take an early price or leave it to SP on the exchange is often not easy and is something I get wrong almost every day. I try not to beat myself up about this nowadays and accept that markets are chaotic and difficult to predict- I find myself leaving more and more to SP as the upside to your expectations can be huge. Knowledge of the habits of the trainers or owners involved can help predict if the cash might arrive.
It should be obvious that my turnover is high- it's routine for me to turn over 20-30 times a normal stake in a busy day. That's not for everyone but it suits me, as it smooths returns. You need to set your stakes at a level where a blank day doesn't get to you too much.
Every bet I make goes in a spreadsheet and with the help of someone more tech savvy than myself I hope to be able to do more analysis of this going forward.
My aim on a day with an Irish card is to be able to look at the results and say that I didn't miss a findable, significantly overpriced winner. If favs go through the card, I'm happy to take my medicine.
If there were one piece of advice I could impart to do this well, it's to stop trying to back winners. That may sound perverse, but there's a powerful herd impulse to back the winner regardless of price and shout about it to your mates. It's harder to accept a lower strike rate and accept that you will have losing days, weeks and months even if you're doing everything right. You simply need to work hard to try and ensure that you make good bets, that is bets with positive expected value (look it up) and allow time to prove you right.

Beating The Machine

Most punters who make a genuine effort to win at the game go through various phases: mug punting, managing to limit losses for a while then eventually getting to the point where winning can reasonably be expected at the start of most years. At the latter stage the difficulties begin- accounts which show profit over time are restricted or closed and you become forced back to the shops. Phone calls to the traders, limited stakes and knockbacks- it grinds you down over time and takes the fun out of it.
At that point you can either spend your energy moaning about your lot on Twitter or try and find another way.
I freely admit that over my punting life, I have struggled to win on Betfair- give me access to 3 or 4 firms' early prices and betting value horses is relatively easy, beating the "machine" is a different matter. Something changed for me in 2017 though and I thought sharing what I think are the reasons might be helpful to some in a similar position.
My shop woes came to a head this year and I made a conscious decision to migrate more to Betfair and have a proper crack at it. The approach is totally different to the early price one however. Spotting overpriced horses the evening before and trying to get on before the value goes doesn't work- by the time there is enough liquidity the price you thought was value the night before may not be there any more.
The first change I implemented was a change of mindset. You need to think of Betfair as a Tote- you are playing against the crowd and it should be just as possible to beat them there as it is to win in other ways.
Secondly the method changes. I now look at the races I'm interested in for the next day and come up with minimum prices for anything from one horse to half a dozen. Then it's a case of either leaving SP bets with this minimum proviso or watching the market live and reacting to the value that's thrown up. This means that I actually have no idea what I'll end up backing until near the off and this takes a little more mental flexibility. The upside is that often horses you didn't really anticipate as bets stick out a mile as value when you've done the requisite prep.
My personal method involves either a full or partial tissue betting to 100% then adding a 50% margin in odds to build in a profit- for example a 2/1 chance would need to be 3/1+ for a bet, and 8/1 would have to be 12/1+ etc. It's important to look at reserves in Ireland as they are often not assessed as accurately. The shape of the race both in how it's run and how they might bet can change a lot if a reserve or reserves get a run.
It's also important to anticipate how the markets and the tissue might change if conditions change before or during the meeting- softening ground, a draw bias on the Flat and so on. Punters without fixed fancies are at a major advantage if they can change tack as races are run.
From taking or leaving Dundalk, for instance, I now wouldn't want to miss a meeting as there are horses with chances trading at insane prices almost every week. Staking is fairly level, but I'm inclined to have another half to full stake on horses which are double my value price or more.
All I can say is that I'm now 80% Betfair and it's paying. I hope this will remain the case- maybe I'll do a progress report at year's end.

Curlywurly

Yesterday's four horse coup divided racing folk neatly down the middle. On one side are the romantics, myself included, who grew up heady on the fumes of past "them and us" battles with the bookmakers passed on down the generations. On the other are the cognoscenti, disciples of the formbook, appalled at the egregious conniving and scheming required to bring off such a touch.
In my time on Twitter I have rarely seen the depth of feeling that this event brought out on both sides and I thought it would be worth explaining why I sit firmly on the conspirators side of the fence.

I grew up in a town called Ashbourne, a mile from where Arkle was trained. As a boy I had no interest in horses or racing and indeed used to wonder why my father was wasting his time on winter afternoons watching brown blobs tackle various differing obstacles while a priest-like figure commentated in hushed tones.

It was the numbers on the screen that piqued my interest and the muttered phone calls: when the "odds" were explained I was hooked, line and sinker, for life. From this grew a love of all things racing as I learned a new language and began a steady diet of Friday night racing chats with Dad and Uncle Jim. Out of those humble beginnings came a lifetime of punting, owning and eventually breeding.

Jim was a heroic figure in my father's eyes: He was Paddy Sleator's form book man in the days when Paddy struck across the Channel in a series of lightning raids, mopping up races all over England. Jim's job was to tell him where his horses were best in, in the days when every course had a different handicapper. Their team were greatly feared and took fortunes from the layers in a golden period before I was born. Jim had a peripheral role in the "Gay Future" affair as well and he and my father could recall the party afterwards, when lads were dropping money on the floor, so much had they stuffed in every pocket.
Jim had without doubt beaten the bookies over his lifetime but sadly I was to overestimate his prowess without Paddy Sleator's horses and waste a considerable part of my early punting life believing that riches lay in backing odds-on"certainties" and combining them in doubles and trebles. He did however introduce me to the magic of the weekly "Irish Racing Calendar" and the Form book, which received far more of my undergraduate attention than my veterinary textbooks.

The point is that it was Dad and Jim's tales of daring coups and gambles that sparked my interest in the sport, and hence I will always have a place in my affections for those who can put one over on the "Old Enemy"  The reality is that times have moved on and taking the bookies for large sums becomes more difficult by the day with improved communications, liability controls and firms becoming more bean counter and less bookmaker all the time. I myself have hardly had a bet with a track bookmaker in 5 years and can't remember the last time I was laid to lose a sum I would consider exciting on the phone or online. The truth is it's all Betfair nowadays, even more so since Barney's coups further closed the gate.

I think people should view Barney as the end of an era. He still regards the bookies as the enemy and wants nothing more than to have them scurrying for cover as their liabilty limiters catch fire. When he goes he closes the book on that time in history, which was magical to a small boy looking for heroes who fought with their heads, not with their fists.

Saturday 1st Sep 2012

Ballyadam Brook saved the day yesterday- an excellent ride from Davy Condon. On a habitual front-runner he realised the early pace was too strong and sat off them pouncing late. Orpheus Valley ran a blinder but ran into a monster in Kalleshan. Denis Hogan is going places and could have a shout in the Plate next year with this fella.
Thin pickings at Killarney today for me.
2.10
Tandem looks a good thing here and the evens with Bet365 looks a gift- 3 pts win.

A New Beginning

I decided a month or so ago to concentrate solely on Irish racing due to increasing time constraints. From now on I'll try and cover all Irish meetings and just the odd big race or Festival in the U.K.
I'm going to post my bets here for the forseeable.

Killarney
7.25
Orpheus Valley made a fine return from a long absence at the Galway Festival leading until the dip then tiring- his jumping was superb. He can be competitive having been dropped nicely for his time off- this trip and ground are ideal.
2 pts win 1 pt place 12/1 Ladbrokes
2nd 12/1 +1 pt.

5.20
I'll be looking to back Free To Dream at anything around the current 8/1- he'll love the trip and going here more than most of these. Fav hard to beat but I had FTD in about 5/1. 2 pts win. 8/1+
Unpl -2 pts

5.50
two outsiders to keep in mind on Betfair especially
Chino Valdes- chance on a few runs in similar conditions 14/1+ needed
Peccatorum- off a while but has gone well fresh 20/1+ needed.

6.55
I like this race for a bet because I'm beginning to worry about Shinrock Paddy's resolution- too many seconds for my liking lately and he takes out a big chunk of this market. I may well be tempted to put in an in-running lay at odds-on on him.
Ballyadam Brook has had one poor chase but has a chance on his hurdles form and I like his front-running style around here. 8/1 Paddy Power 1.5 pts win 0.5 pts place.
Double Seven flopped last time but nice form chases and hurdles prior to that- 6/1 Paddy Power 2 pts win.
Chino Valdes the other one in the mix, can't fancy much else.
Ballyadam Brook won 10/3 + 12.8 pts Double Sevenunpl -2 pts

Down Royal
4.40
Dumbarton big at 8/1 Paddy Power 2 pts win.
Decent of the Flat and travelled well for a long way on his hurdles debut- will come on a lot for that.
Fell -2 pts
7.15
Willies Girl big at 12/1 2 pts win 1 pt place. Chucked in on chase form and even last hurdles effort behind Lady Olwyn (winner again since) gives her a big chance here.
Unpl 9/1 -3 pts.

Cheltenham Day 4

Triumph Hurdle
To follow

County Hurdle
Fascinating money this morning (Tuesday 6th) for David Pipe's Master Of Arts for both the Imperial Cup and this race. The stable have plenty of previous in pulling off Imperial Cup/Cheltenham coups but to win a County off 3 lifetime hurdles starts would earn my vote as one of the training performances of the season- this is a rough race.
The one which caught my eye at this stage was Tony Martin's Redera. Given a sighter around here in a novice hurdle behind Steps To Freedom at the November meeting he wasn't seen again until running in a warm 2 mile handicap at Leopardstown when friendless in the market. His rider seemed keen to give the outside to noone but still came to the last with a chance and finished a decent third. I'm certain that wasn't the day and that there's any amount of improvement in him. Good ground is vital and if he runs here under those conditions I struggle to see him starting anywhere near the bookies' current offer of 33/1 NRNB. He's streetwise from the Flat and AJM is sure to book a decent pilot like Carberry or Walsh on the day.

Albert Bartlett

I put up Sea Of Thunder for this a while ago at 10/1. You can still get 8/1 at the time of writing which still looks a bit on the big side. A winner of two points he was brought along very patiently by Charles Byrnes running a few times at inadequate trips before being sent over for a race over this course and trip in December. He'd have lagged up showing much improved form for the trip if he hadn't fallen at the last. Put away after that he reappeared at Leopardstown at the end of January over 2 1/2 miles on unsuitably heavy ground where he wasn't abused when finishing fifth to Boston Bob. There is no better target trainer than Mr Byrnes and though I missed the fancy prices (I thought he might have had a handicap in mind) I'd still like to be with him even if Boston Bob reopposes.

Gold Cup

Having put up Captain Chris before the King George at 20/1 NRNB I'm hoping they miss the gig as his old right-jumping frailties resurfaced in the Argento and he would be best kept right-handed from now on in my opinion. Ironic, as it was this tendency which prompted me to suggest that he couldn't win last year's Arkle- the fact that he did probably doesn't say much for the quality of that renewal. Miss Cheltenham altogether and go fresh to the Punchestown Gold Cup Mr Hobbs and do me and your horse a favour.
Long Run is just too short for a horse with his jumping issues and an inexperienced rider on board. He got away with a few mistakes last year but I wonder if they took their toll on him mentally or physically as he hasn't moved with the same ease this season- it all looks a bit of an effort. OK he gave 10lbs to a decent horse in Burton Port at Newbury but from looking as if he'd go away and win 3 or 4 he struggled home and you couldn't even be 100% sure he'd confirm that form. The runner up has a chance here if he improves rather than regresses from that outing but he's plenty short enough now given that doubt. I was on him for my life for last year's race after his Hennessy run and still think he's up to this class but one run close to the Festival is not an ideal Gold Cup preparation.
Kauto Star is the fairytale horse but I didn't really fancy him before the recent scare and can't have him at all now. Even if he's 100% recovered the whole malarkey has to be detrimental mentally- when he should be resting in his box the last few weeks he's got numerous bloody humans poking and prodding him in sore places.
I can't have a novice in the Gold Cup so even if Grands Crus turns up here a single-figure price wouldn't interest me- he'll be trying to achieve something exceptional and we're not getting paid enough for that. It's also not a given that he'll stay the trip well enough at Gold Cup pace- I'd even be taking him on in the RSA for that reason so can't have him on my mind here.
Given the above there has to be some value in the race and I backed Weird Al a little while ago at 20/1. His lack of a recent run is a plus if anything as he must be like a porcelain doll and doesn't take racing very well at all. Given that, the Betfair Chase might have been plenty quick after his reappearance win in the Charlie Hall and he may well improve on his third place in that coming here fresh and well. He loves the track and is still a bit too big at 14/1.
I don't think Quel Esprit will be quite good enough or stay well enough.
So often we think we have horses categorised but they prove us dead wrong- Synchronised needs the mud? Hoses up in a Lexus on good going to prove us all wrong. Might not have beaten a lot though as for me the second Rubi Light was a non-stayer and the Quito de la Roque bubble has been well and truly burst. I couldn't write him off here though as a strong stayer who might just have more class than we thought. If the rain comes his price will halve.
Midnight Chase loves Cheltenham, good ground an an easy lead. If he gets all three he's not out of it- a lot will depend on how many line up and if there are any others desperate to make the pace or harry him. If they leave him alone and he gets into a good jumping rhythm he's got at least place chances.
The likes of What A Friend (short-headed by Kauto last year to deny me the place part of a lump each way at 40/1) and Tidal Bay are capable of dodging their way into a place but it's hard to see them having the resolution to win.

Foxhunters
I can't pretend I've been though this in any detail but I was mightily impressed with Salsify at Leopardstown in what is traditionally our strongest hunter chase. He travelled and jumped like a dream for Colman Sweeney and for me was different class to the opposition. When there were offers of 10/1 a few days later for this contest I had my biggest antepost bet of the season on him. He won at both Spring festivals last year and is a young horse going places. I would easily excuse his flop on bad ground at Thurles as he needs decent going and his jockey is as good as any of them riding in this. The current 8/1 is still worth an interest.

Cheltenham Day 3

Ryanair Chase
This is shaping up to be one of the races of the Festival if all the intended runners stand their ground. For me there are at least 7 credible contenders all nudging top class, good to see as the contest has been a bit weak in previous years.
Rubi Light is favourite for me unless it comes up fast, given his cracking run last year as a callow 6yo and his considerable progress since. He loves serving it up from the front and if there's any dig at all underfoot they may struggle to keep tabs on him- I put him up at 20/1 before he won at Punchestown and my only regret is that we couldn't get more on. I make him practically unbeatable on soft ground at this trip and it's only the prospect of faster that give his rivals hope.
Noble Prince was the subject of an earlier blog post as his campaigning this year leaves a lot to be desired. There were races where he'd have had his preferred conditions (2 1/2 miles or thereabouts on good ground) but his trainer chose to keep flogging him around against two-milers on bad ground with predictable results. I'm a big believer in horses going to the Festival on a high and it's advantage Rubi Light over him in that regard. For me his price should have drifted more on the back of his last few runs and I'd still expect him to be a little easier to back on the day. If he were to drift I'd certainly consider him after his impressive win in the novice equivalent last year but for now he's too short.
I'd be against Riverside Theatre as he has a best fresh profile and all his form is on flat tracks. On the figures he should be nearly favourite but if I can place lay him at 6/4 or less I will.
Somersby has arguably the best form in the race and did me a favour winning at Ascot the last day. I think they'll end up running here though the Queen Mother looks the easier option this year. I can't quite decide why he doesn't win more as no trip seems right- I wouldn't count him out and could even have an each-way interest but if this is as strong on the day as it looks now he may just be a place chance. That said if Rubi tows them along at a good clip it could just suit him...
Poquelin loves this track and always gives his best. 16/1 is a bit of an insult though he has a few lbs to find.
My second bet is on Great Endeavour a little while ago at 14/1: fresh at this track and trip his record is excellent and though he needs to find 10lbs from somewhere he might just do so.
Medermit is also right in this as Cheltenham will suit him better than his Ascot conqueror Riverside Theatre. He's probably about the right price now after Pricewise put him up.
Alberta's Run keeps coming back to the Spring festivals and producing the goods despite appearing to be in awful form beforehand- you couldn't rule him out though he'll probably have to produce his best ever run at the age of 11 to win this year.

Cheltenham Day 2

Fred Winter
My starting point in this race is the Flat ability of the runners as this can give an indication of which of them might be well handicapped. One who stood out to me on my first spin through was Gordon Elliott's Discoteca who won off 85 on the Flat yet is rated only 122 over obstacles. This for me is likely to be because after a decent start when second to Chill on decent ground at Leopardstown his next two starts to obtain a mark were on bad ground, which on his Flat form looks totally unsuitable. He's not certain to get in but if he does the current 20/1 NRNB will be a distant memory.
On Flat ability Creekside would come into this but I'd have doubts about his stamina over a stiff 2 miles- he wasn't making any ground late on at Towcester and he might not get up the hill in what's sure to be a well-run contest.

RSA
One of my favourite races to play a couple of longshots as the shorter priced ex top hurdlers often don't cut the mustard here- it's a brutal race and the biggest attribute needed is stamina.
Even if Grands Crus turns up here I'd be against him on stamina grounds. Bobs Worth's jumping technique doesn't convince me and the same comments apply to First Lieutenant.
I'll probably back a couple more on the day but felt I should get involved at this stage on Lambro at the current 25/1. It's not out of the question that Ruby could end up riding and I love his jumping and his attitude. His chasing runs this season have been at inadequate trips as I'm convinced he wants every yard of this 3 miles. This race is cutting up by the day (Invictus the latest injury doubt) and I doubt we'll beat "pony" on the day.

Bumper
There are a few filters which are useful to narrow down the possibilities here- experience in a big field is one of the better ones. That counts aginst New Year's Eve and Jezki.
For me the Irish runners tend to be overbet now given the previous monopoly we had on this race but the Brits have won the last two and it may be worth chancing that they'll make it three in a row.
The Oliver Sherwood trained Many Clouds was visually impressive at Wetherby but he looks a future chasing type and might struggle for pace amongst the Flat breds unless the rains come.
One of the stories of the season has been how John Ferguson has been mopping up with well-bred Sheikh Mo cast offs in bumpers and novice hurdles. If the going rides decent on the second day which given the forecast looks likely then his flashy white-faced son of Noverre Population could be the one to be on here. Watching his two wins at Ascot I was taken with his tactical speed, courage to come between horses and electric turn of foot. For me he idles in front in his second win and is value for more than the winning margin. The current 16/1 available is fair, and I'll be keeping a beady eye on the market between now and next week.
11/3/12
It doesn't look as if Population will run- I'll be having another look on the day.

Cheltenham 2012 Day 1.

With the Festival almost upon us again I'm giving my thoughts on here for the second year. As usual it'll be a synopsis of my thoughts on each race and the horses I'm with or against updated every day or two between now and the off each day so keep visiting!
The Betfair thread where all my bets for the NH season are posted "live" is in the Horse Antepost section and is called the NH 2011-12 big races thread- 80 odd points profit this NH season so far.



Supreme Novices
I have had one bet here on Galileo's Choice at 12/1 posted on my Betfair thread before he won at Fairyhouse. He jumped well that day bar 3 out and heads to Cheltenham with every chance as the best Flat horse in the lineup, being a Group 3 winner. Better ground is a big plus and I wouldn't want to see rain on watered ground before the meeting. If it gets softer the NH breds come more into things-look for those who started life in bumpers rather than on the Flat. I don't think those at the head of the market are all that strong and may well play another longshot or two on the day. I couldn't have Darlan (bad fall at Newbury, underperformed only visit here) or Steps To Freedom (no run since mid November) at current prices. I think Colour Squadron is always underrated given his quirks but see him running well here and perhaps contending at Liverpool as winning this off a fall is not easy.
8/3/12
I'm warming a bit to Nicky Henderson's Tetlami at around 16/1. He has bumper form at the track and has won his two hurdles starts without breaking sweat. An easy win in the "jumpers bumper" at Kempton will have set him up nicely for this and he'll go there with his confidence on a high. I have had an interest tonight at that price with Bet365.

Arkle
Over the years it has paid to take on the hype horses at the Festival and by far the biggest of them this year is Sprinter Sacre. He was undeniably impressive at Newbury against open company but the memory of him travelling all over them in the Supreme last year before flattening out after the last gives hope to those taking him on at a short price.
That's what I've done as to date I've backed 3 each way against him, thinking that the race might cut up to 8 or even less runners. On the thread I put up Al Ferof at 7/1 and Menorah at 14s, and I've also punted Cue Card at 9s. I'd have these 3, the favourite and Peddler's Cross as the only possible winners here and the market vibes about the latter have not been encouraging recently. He looked laboured when Sprinter beat him at Kempton and may have had his problems. If his excellent trainer can get him back he's got a big chance but given the doubts I'll pass.
Cue Card is likely to get an easy lead here and I can see him kicking on down the hill and trading quite short at some stage, whether he can last home is the doubt but he looks rock-solid each way. Menorah has had a nightmare novice season falling twice but he wouldn't be the first good hurdler to overcome this on the day and put in a good round of jumping when really needed. Al Ferof will surely need further in time but where Sprinter was fading he was finishing up this hill and if he's within 6 lengths of them turning in he has a chance.
11/3/12
I've added an each-way bet on Kid Cassidy at 33/1- he's not an 8/1 chance to place if this cuts up to 7 or 8 runners.

JLT Specialty Handicap Chase
I'd imagine Quantitativeasing will end up with topweight of 11:12 here meaning the weights will go up 5lbs. Not an easy race to carry big weights and I'll be putting a line through all those above the 11st mark in the current handicap. One that jumped out at me when first going through this race was Dessie Hughes' Magnanimity who looks quite well in on his run in the RSA last year. He's a horse who usually needs his first couple of runs every season and I thought he showed enough in the Bobbyjo Chase last time to suggest he is coming to his peak and there is no better target trainer for staying chasers than Dessie Hughes. His stable have been out of form since Christmas but there have been some encouraging signs recently that he might be turning the corner. I haven't backed the horse yet but will be keeping a close eye on the 20/1 now available if it starts to look like he's travelling over.
Update 8/3/12
There's a little bit of cash around for him today so I've taken 20/1 NRNB.
11/3/12
I've backed a couple more in the last few days namely Fruity O'Rooney at 25/1 and Summery Justice at 33/1. I will be looking closely at one more on the day Baile Anrai if he runs here- he wouldn't have been far away in the Reynoldstown last day when he fell 3 out. He edged a bit left that day and as such might prefer it around here.

Champion Hurdle
The Fly, or not to Fly...
He and Sprinter Sacre will make or break most people's first days and I won't be able to resist playing one or two against him though I expect him to win.
Top of my list is Rock On Ruby who did me a big favour when winning at the Hennessy meeting and who is all guts and class. My worry is that he hasn't run since going down narrowly to Binocular at Christmas and the vibes are only middling. I may well still be tempted by a price around the 14-16/1 mark on the day if the reports are good.
I'd be a little against Binocular at the price as it's hard to regain your crown here and though he looks better recently he's had major issues which could resurface in the white heat of battle.
I still can't back a 5yo in this despite Kaachit laying the ghost and can't have Zarkandar at a short price. He did very well to win the Betfair (old Tote Gold Trophy) at Newbury off a big weight but might just come up short this year. Oscar's Well is improving with every start this season but anyone who saw the Fly laugh at him at Leopardstown will find it hard to imagine him reversing the placings under conditions which should favour the strong travelling Fly even more.
The rest just don't look good enough and the race may well cut up to 8 or 9 runners. Kalann does run and will improve for the better ground- it wouldn't shock me if he ran well above his mark.
11/3/12
I'll probably be sitting this out- someone ate my lunch on Rock On Ruby taking all the 14/1 so I'm unlikely to play now.

Cross Country
Not for the purist but a good race for punting (when they go the right way) as most of them can be eliminated if they haven't got previous decent form over this or another similar course. It's hard to say what would have happened at the December meeting before they all got carried out but Uncle Junior and Scotsirish would definitely have been involved. I don't think Garde Champetre will be good enough this time- he'd be a place lay for me.
In my opinion two things matter less than in normal races here- weight and distance. They seem to tootle around for 3 1/2 miles then sprint from the turn in so the class horses come to the fore and extra weight has less impact. That means the 2 Mullins horses are big players despite their weights and in Scotsirish's case, slight stamina doubt. If those doubts allow backing either or both at an each-way price on the day I'll be playing them.
Sizing Australia won last year and has every chance again.
I've had two bets so far- Quezac De La Roque each way at 25/1 is the first- he ran a screamer last year for a 7yo only fading late on and has a massive place chance at least this time, especially if we get a bit of rain. This course is currently riding very fast as they can't water it and if it went good or softer his chance would increase.
A complete flyer is also taken with 100/1 De Danu, who was running a nice race at Punchestown last month before slipping off the last bank and losing all chance. He was under the cosh at the December meeting when the melee took place but having only had three cross country starts he is entitled to improve a bit. I certainly wouldn't want to be laying 25/1 to finish in the first 4.

Centenary Novice Handicap
I'm getting conflicting messages about whether he travels or not but if Nearest The Pin shows up here he could be very well handicapped on the likely better ground. Highly thought of at Tony Martin's his best run hurdling was on the better ground at Fairyhouse when bolting up despite AJM's horses not being in the best of form. This season's chasing efforts have been underwhelming but he has looked unhappy on deep winter going and hasn't been knocked about. I have a feeling they are just waiting for one of the Spring festivals to strike from what now looks a very fair mark. One thing is for sure- if he runs in this he won't be anywhere near the current 20/1 you can get NRNB with a few firms.

Be happy with what you have

There seems to be a kind of schizophrenia affecting some Irish trainers lately. First connections of Sizing Europe, one of the best two milers seen for the past few years make two separate attempts to turn him into a three miler with predictable results then Paul Nolan seems intent on running the top class 2 1/2 miler Noble Prince repeatedly over 2 miles, missing an eminently winnable race in Clonmel then stating the 2 miler at Leopardstown to be the horse's next target.
Finally today Rubi Light gives a bold aggressive performance over 2 1/2 in the John Durkan and Robbie Hennessy wants to try him over three at Christmas on what is likely to be heavy ground at Leopardstown in the Lexus.If you watch today's race back take a look at where dour stayer Joncol is three out and where he finishes and tell me Rubi Light will improve for another half mile. He may well stay in time but next year would be time enough after winning a Ryanair first. Am I talking my book? You betcha.
My basic point? If you have a horse who is performing at the top level under its optimum conditions, why try and make it into something it's not? And if you try once and fail, take the hint!

Aintree Foxhunters

5 pm
I thought it would be interesting to detail the process that goes into finding a bet in a race like this. This afternoon (Wednesday) after getting the declarations I went through the field and made the following notes on the likely contenders and priced them up:
Baby Run bold jumping front-running style ideal. Negative that had a hard race at Chelt and might have been beginning to tire when fell, also previously fell here- likely to be put in short, would oppose at 5/1 or less.
Fort View exciting youngster has been held up slight negative, jockey a plus query enough experience for this- would consider win only at 10/1+ Heron's Well front-runner big plus, going OK when fell Chelt drop back in trip a positive fences an unknown who rides? owner's son usually replacement might be a positive. anything above 8/1 interesting.
Ice Tea bold jumping front runner trip a possible negative as stays much further jockey OK, 10/1+ of interest.
Kilty Storm races prom, good pilot, 2nd Aintree/Punch 2010, won 2 pts this ssn- possibly not quite classy enough? 14/1+ of some interest. Massini Man good seq in Hun Chases unpl Kim Muir, races prom- jumping a big worry 20/1+ wouldn't back.
Moncadou second last yr (backed him) good pilot, coming slowly to hand, chance 14/1+ would interest.
Offshore Account led the 09 National a long way jumping well fancied Topham 2010 faded disappointingly modest form since, new stable- hard to fancy 25/1+

Silver Adonis last yrs winner mod form sice tho going OK when fell Kempton small chance 20/1
Turko won well Newbury, some of the best form on offer, however didn't seem to enjoy this in 08 National. If takes to it this time big chance, big if. 8/1 of interest but better in-running play if jumps the first few well.
Van Ness 4th last yr mod pointing form this- small chance 25/1. I will edit this post later when I see prices and detail any bets then made.

9pm Most bookmakers have priced the race and I have a fairly clear idea what I want to do. This is the frustrating period for me in the past few years since almost all my online accounts (and the wife's and the best friends!) were restricted or closed down. Now I can only look at prices overnight and hope they survive to shop time. Heron's Well looks well overpriced at 14/1 with Victor Chandler but I have no chance of getting that. 12/1 with Paddy Power will do and I'll be in a shop early to try and get that each way. Meantime all I can do is have a nibble on Betfair win only. When I reviewed the Foxhunter tape he didn't actually make a mistake, merely stumbled after the feance and his rider fell off. He galloped on and "won" the race so will probably have had a nicer experience than the favourite. Hopefully someone will get yer man to ride a bit longer tomorrow and try and stay on board. I will also back Ice Tea each way at Paddy Power's 12/1 if I can get it. He looks sure to be up in the van and 1/4 first 4 places is a gift. I may have a smaller Betfair tickle on Fort View who trades around 18/1.

10.30am
Off work today so doing my own betting. On days when I'm at work I have three or four people who put on for me in the shops. First stop this morning was Paddy Power to get 12/1 Heron's Well (2 pts each way) and 12/1 Ice Tea (1 pt each way).

4.45 pmOne selection fell, the other brought down- the joys of punting over the National fences. Repeat the above a few hundred times and you have a year in the life of a punter!

Dubai Golden Shaheen Meydan Saturday.

I started looking at this race after James Knight tweeted that he had backed Euroears at 5/1 as he's a good judge. As I went through it however I was struck by the amount of pace in the field: Rocket Man, Charlie's Moment, Dim Sum, Euroears and Kinsale King all want to lead or sit very handy and I can easily see the pace collapsing late. If it does a closer could well pick up the pieces and Green Birdie could be the one to benefit. At 20/1 tonight he's definitely overpriced to place and if getting a good tow here he could even cause a shock- he's beaten the favourite before in a Grade 1. 1.5 pts each way Green Birdie 20/1 Paddy Power 1/4 123. 4th 16/1 -3 pts.

County Hurdle Friday

My shortlist here is
Secret Dancer (backed at 22/1 Corals)
Final Approach (12/1 Ladbrokes)
Ciceron (should get 25/1 in the morning).

Final Approach won 10/1, others unplaced.

Byrne Group Plate Thursday

One that stands out here is Nigel Twiston-Davies Crescent Island who has good course form having been third in last year's Jewson. Three miles on softish ground was not his bag at Kempton and these conditions will suit much better. The 20/1 available tonight is decent value each way.

Non-runner.

Kim Muir Thursday

One that caught my eye straight away this evening was Phillip Hobbs' Mostly Bob. He was an early faller in the Racing Post Chase but it wasn't really his fault as he collided with another runner. Conditions here will suit really well and 16/1 should be taken each way. PU 12/1.