Low Sun (GB)

The debate about jumping obstacles when the sun shines has predictably reared its head again with the return of better class National Hunt racing. The Old Roan chase was recently reduced to a six fence farce at Aintree, a track that seems particularly vulnerable to this desecration.

I have been described as having "callous" and "strange"views on this subject by some of the more "welfare minded" which annoys me as it's far from the truth, hence this explanation of my position.

 It was revealed during that same Aintree meeting where a hurdle race was run with obstacles omitted despite no sun being visible, that the final arbiter on this is the "jockeys' liaison officer" who hangs around down at the start and asks the jockeys if they want to jump the fences or hurdles or not. This is obviously not sustainable: jockeys are self interested and will obviously jump as few obstacles to collect their riding fee as they are allowed to. My beef with the current situation is that decisions on what to jump and what to omit are made with zero evidence base, on the hoof, by conflicted parties. My questions are:

1.Why is this something we never heard about until the last 10-15 years? In my younger days following the jumps I never recall anyone suggesting a fence or hurdle be omitted. There are two possible explanations for this: Either we were willfully ignorant putting horses and jockeys at significant risk, or the risk wasn't actually that great. The only way to discern this is by proper research. If it can be conclusively demonstrated that jumping obstacles in the sunshine puts man and beast at significantly increased risk of injury then of course it must be mitigated. Comparing periods pre and post mitigation measures would be one very obvious metric to assess. To my knowledge nobody has yet done this- all the evidence I've heard thus far has been anecdotal.

2. If jumping obstacles is so dangerous when the sun shines, why are obstacles never omitted in France? They certainly have more sun than we do on these islands and they jump a far greater variety of obstacles. Again they are either negligent, putting their participants at unacceptable risk, or the risk itself is acceptable or negligible. Only proper scientific research will differentiate this. 

3.What about other equine disciplines-If you're out hunting do you follow the scent or quarry over an obstacle if the sun is in your eyes or find the nearest gate? Do they omit obstacles at Badminton or Burghley?

4. Is the risk linked to sun angle, so we can say it's only significant in the depth of winter or are clerks justified in omitting obstacles into late spring and early summer, as is beginning to happen?

All I'm asking is that before we destroy a sport I love on the altar of safetyism, that we do so armed with properly collated evidence.  british and Irish racing authorities should tackle this issue together.                    A working group made up of experienced horsemen and women and others with relevant scientific and veterinary knowledge should be tasked with collecting data over twelve months or more from all over the world in a variety of disciplines and conditions to first define and quantify the problem, then suggest mitigation if needed and rigid protocols around implementation of same. This should include trying to communicate any measures taken to the betting public in a timely manner and a system of allowing bets to be voided if a certain number of obstacles are omitted. Anyone having a bet on the Old Roan chase was in effect robbed, as the contest which took place bore no resemblance to what they were entitled to expect when the majority of bets were placed. 

Punting Evolution

Some thoughts on punting evolution occurred to me recently which are certainly true in my case and may have a wider application.
It strikes me that punters go through various stages of this. When you start betting, unless you are born with unusual skill and judgement, it's all a bit random and you don't have a great sense of discretion, value or control. Most people lose and lose quite badly. This is in itself not a bad thing as it teaches you the dangers of the dark side- uncontrolled random punting will send you broke. I've spoken before of being 16 when my Dad left me the number of his bookie during Cheltenham so I could ring up and have a bet. He knew exactly what would happen and returned to a chastened soul who owed a large multiple of his weekly pocket money. I still think the shame of that was the best lesson I ever learnt.
The second phase on the journey for anyone serious about it has to begin with record keeping. It's far too easy to kid yourself that you're "breaking even" when the reality is usually much different. In my case it took some years of looking down pages of odds-on multiples with small profit or loss before the realization that short prices don't really pay the bills. From recording comes insight and the beginnings of the search for a profitable method. Everyone's paths diverge at this point but the keys are surely finding something you enjoy and can develop a detailed knowledge of to bet on, as after all you are going to have to be a better judge than 95% of the betting population to gain a worthwhile edge. In my case the first step was to stem the losses mostly caused by ill discipline, chasing and interest bets until I could generally eke out a small yearly profit. It took a long time more to gain a decent edge and to become confident of that edge.
Another fair generalization is that it's easier to gain an edge in relatively illiquid markets. I did a lot of ante post betting 20 years ago because if you make a study of the major races on the Flat and Jumps over the year it's not that difficult to spot prices that are out of line. The same goes for overnight prices- like everyone I had a full portfolio of accounts back in the day and picking value from the best ante post and early prices was quite feasible. It's easy enough to spot those punters on Twitter who are at this stage, with their overnight blogs and tips. Indeed, most journalists never get beyond this stage because they don't have to.
Again, inevitably, if you are successful at the above as a normal individual, you begin to run into problems. Accounts begin getting restricted and sometimes closed. This is a turning point for many people. You can become disillusioned and sometimes get turned off the whole game: how unfair is it that the medium you have spent so long studying in order to gain an edge (PhDs are often easier) is now being closed off to you by those pesky bookmakers? You can start using friends and family to get on and start wearing down shoe leather going around shops. Agents can be an outlet. All of these approaches have major downsides, getting paid for one!
Logically, sooner or later you must conclude that the only sustainable way to make it pay is by gaining an edge in highly liquid markets, that is the exchanges close to the off. This approach takes a completely different mindset and it's the mindset for me which is the most important. You must believe you can win and you must be a slave to value. It's no good fancying a price the night before then becoming frustrated when it evaporates. The only way is to price the possible outcomes of an event and wait for the live odds. If something is offered at significantly above your price, you play. If not, you pass. You need patience, discipline and flexibility- it's as far as possible away from the deterministic approach used by the majority who are trying to back the winner.
The final stage as I see it is that of scaling up. Again it's relatively easy to make a small profit but the challenge is once you're confident in your edge to ramp it up in order to win sums that will actually make a difference in your life. Hand in hand with this must go bankroll management- scared money loses and it's vital to put by plenty to allow for the inevitable drawdowns. This point is one that I personally was slow on until fairly recently. I'd play from whatever cash happened to be in the bank at the time but it's an absolute certainty that your betting behavior changes depending on the reserves available to you. When I had a decent win during this current year a friend asked what I was going to buy with the winnings- he was a little bemused when I explained that it was going to make my bank stronger. When your bank is properly funded then starts throwing off some decent returns you can start spending it. I read a blog recently of a winning punter in Australia who is operating on a completely different level to me. He turns over hundreds of thousands every day. Most of what he said was common snse but one quote stuck with me: "Naturally my bet sizes are tiny against bankroll". This is crucial, I believe.
He also undergoes a constant process of reviewing his approach and modifying it month on month and year on year. It's vital to keep adapting as the market does to maintain what ever edge you have.

Cheltenham ruminations and resolutions

If you stand still in this game you're dead, so it's imperative to take stock frequently and find ways to improve. I managed to win a tiny amount over the four days of Cheltenham which in itself doesn't bother me (4 days even 4 busy ones like that is a tiny sample of a year's betting) but I did feel that I could have done things better.
The major change this year was 48 hour declarations for everything (previously only the Grade 1s)
What this meant in practice was that markets for the final declared fields were available 2 evenings before. I'm not sure if these prices were laid in shops that evening but they were certainly available the following morning and from my point of view that's when I have to be ready to act next year. I found the day of race markets pretty much bang on in the conditions races, unsurprisingly, as they had had 2 days to converge and eliminate any ricks. I'll be taking  a leaf out of Tony Keenan's book next year and I'll be on the conditions races like a tramp on chips the week before, playing NRNB and ready to act on anything out of line after decs.
The other major area of interest is NRNB on all races from the time all the firms embrace it. It means laying out a lot of money but it's worth it if you have 6-8 horses with multiple targets that you know must shorten in whatever race they end up in. The one I really wanted to be with this year was Whiskey Sour, but I didn't see the County coming. (Willie unpredictable, how predictable) I did get on but only after decs. I spent fortunes backing Sire De Berlais and Early Doors for everything bar the Boat Race for all the good it did me but in another year 2 or 3 of these click and it's well worth it. The late switchers are where the real gold is though: the Douvan shennanigans a case in point- anyone with positions in the Champion Chase and Ryanair could have done very well out of that.
Another thing I realised is not to be put off by the ground if it's the only reason not to be with a horse- it's an overplayed factor. Horses like Balko Des Flos, Mohayyed and Tiger Roll went off much bigger than they should have because of connections' ground fears- if the price is big enough you can take that chance.
On ante post, I'm also going to have a rethink. this year large positions I had in the championship races laying horses arguably stopped me forming new opinions nearer the race- though they made a profit I'm not sure it was worth it especially as it ties up a lot of funds for several months.
This year I learnt to be even more flexible about "trends" to the point of perhaps binning them altogether. Native River couldn't win the Gold Cup because he had been beaten the year before, Shattered Love couldn't win a novice chase because she was a mare, Balko Des Flos didn't have a course win- it's mostly backfitted nonsense and I think I'll ditch the lot next Festival.
Looking back, I don't feel I did too much wrong- I had 18 horses placed all at double figure prices, so it just feels like variance won this year. That's not as good as it sounds by the way, as I'm usually playing 2-3 horses per race.
Lastly, considering it was the first year I didn't attend (excepting the abandoned year and a year in Australia) since the early '90s, I didn't miss it. I'm not sure if that says more about me, or the modern Festival.

No Mas, Michael.

I have been attending the Cheltenham Festival since going with my Dad in the early 1990s. I've hardly missed a year since. Yet I came out of my now normal two day pilgrimage on the Wednesday night last year and decided I wasn't going back.
My first year attending may have been 1992 (painful memories of my hero Carvills Hill's eclipse) but the fabric of my Festival memories goes back a lot further- to my early teens when I first got interested in racing and began to partake in the endless winter debates about Champion Hurdles, Gold Cups and Champion Chases. Speculation about Irish horses going over to take on the might of England kept us enthused in the long winter evenings and tales of heroes past like Vincent O'Brien's domination of the Gloucester Hurdle, Paddy Sleator's daring raids and Mick O'Toole's tilts at the ring filled many a Friday evening at Uncle Jim's.
It was simpler them, three perfect days, three championship races and nowhere to hide. All that changed utterly when the jamboree expanded to four days. Now we had races at intermediate distances- the Ryanair, the JLT, three novice hurdles, mares races, a Cross Country for God's sake. It was Quantitative Easing for racing- dilute the product and spread it thinner, no one will notice. Outwardly, they haven't. All four days are well attended, the focus on Cheltenham is arguably narrower than ever, the racing is still exciting. The Festival dollar in your pocket still buys what it always did- or does it?
Michael O'Leary was out front and centre this week pushing for another new Festival race- an intermediate distance Championship hurdle. In his argument he mused that the Gold Cup in 2016 was no poorer for the absence of the 176 rated Ryanair winner Vautour. All of the speculation that season after he was chinned on the line in the King George was around whether he would get the trip in the Gold Cup- it split people down the middle like a civil war. Then mere days before Cheltenham the news came that he was ducking the gig and taking the easier option over two miles five. Anyone who asserts that this didn't devalue that year's Gold Cup is a fool or a knave- I'm not sure which you are Michael but it's evens each of two.
The extra races have already torn the narrative of time, of champions- how good was Quevega? Annie Power? Could both have won multiple championship races against the boys? How many Bobsline/Noddy's Ryde clashes have we missed out on since the JLT? Can you name the last 4 winners of the Martin Pipe?
Why do I feel relaxed about missing out in March? It's no fun any more- I don't know what will run in which race, I don't really care who wins most of them and I no longer deem it worth the scrum and the expense. I will go back, but I'm not saying when.
If you're losing me from the March extravaganza you're losing a fair chunk of your previous diehards. In good times like this it may not matter, but when the next downturn comes your four days may start to look a litttle threadbare, both in terms of the "product" and the bottom line.

Irish Racing, because we're worth it.

Kevin Blake wrote a blog for Attheraces this week calling for, among other things, an expansion of the winter Dundalk programme and a second all weather track in Munster. I argued against this on Twitter but the constraints of 280 characters prompted this blog.
Irish Racing does entitlement like The Donald does hair and ego. The simple truth is that the Irish industry is blessed by being subsidized from the public purse every year. Betting turnover does not cover the cost of putting on racing. Calls for more racing, especially lower class Flat racing must be viewed through this prism.
Dundalk on a Friday night is one of Irish racing's success stories: it's getting good brand recognition through the Attheraces coverage with the two cheeky chappies and the horses and personalities there are becoming known to a wider audience. People bet on things they are familiar with- Dundalk on a Friday is becoming part of the fabric: you go down to the pub, watch it on the telly and have a few bets- what better way to kick off the weekend? Would Tipperary on a Tuesday night garner the same interest or betting turnover? Would betting turnover increase substantially as the number of 0-65 all weather handicaps ballooned?
They can do it in France, was the cry- ah yes, but they have a Tote monopoly and every penny of betting turnover is made to count. In our model we have to make do with the scraps from the Paddy Power table.
What our industry has to realise is that the only sustainable business model is one where it is self-financing. There is only so much rural employment guff successive governments will listen to when (inevitably) times get tougher. The current exchequer largesse is a low hanging fruit waiting to be picked by the next left-leaning coalition partner facing into a difficult budget with the media screaming about hundreds of patients on trolleys. If at that point we have another all weather track and a further bloated fixture list the pain of loss will be far worse.
The energies of those in our industry should be put into consolidating and selling what we have. The Irish Tote despite some success in promoting the Pick 6 is largely moribund and shows very little appetite for modernization or innovation. It needs root and branch reform to offer a real alternative to exchange betting and fixed odds. TV coverage is gold- the Friday night programme sells the product. We need more features on the people and horses who put on the show, even if the industry funds them itself. Ger Lyons' son recently produced a "day in the life" piece on his Dad which was excellent- that sort of human interest piece is what should be playing on Attheraces between the Friday races. Why aren't we inviting Luke and Jason over for a tour of Meath/North Dublin via Ado McGuinness, Garvan Donnelly and Demot McLoughlin?
If we get into a situation where the product generates enough betting turnover to pay for itself we can talk about more tracks and more fixtures. Until that we need to concentrate on selling what we have.

Day In The Life

Following on from my last post I thought it might interest people how the nuts and bolts of my new approach works these days.
Preparation for the next day's racing begins the day before as soon as possible after declarations, work permitting. Firstly I go through every card for "stats" qualifiers mainly using Horseracebase.com. This is a catch all term for various systems I am using based on statistics to systematically pinpoint overpriced horses. It could be a sire on a particular surface, a jockey/trainer combination or a trainer with a high strike rate with debutantes. To use a stat it must have: 1) At least 10 actual winners 2) A strike rate of 20% or very close to it 3) Profit. I don't get very interested unless there's a 50% ROI or close to it. People use stats with lower strike rates successfully but for me it increases the risk that the profit is simply chance and it takes too long to find out. Ideas for systems come from everywhere- sometimes a pundit on TV will quote a stat which sounds promising but usually when I run it through Horseracebase it doesn't stack up. If it satisfies the criteria above it goes in. It's a constant process of adding, pruning and removing systems as time goes on- what worked last year won't neccessarily work this.
 At any time I'll be running 20-30 systems on Horseracebase and they'll spit out anything up to 20 qualifiers on busy days. That's where the work starts, as I don't back them blind. I'll then look at each qualifier individually and ask the question-"has the market priced this horse correctly?" Usually if the horse is 5/1 or bigger the answer is "no" and it's a bet. I leave most of the shorter priced ones alone. I won't back all the bigger priced ones either as there may be a logical reason for eliminating them because of trip or ground concerns, or multiple qualifiers in a race.
If it's a bet the last decision is how to back it. In 90% of cases that's done by placing an SP bet on the exchange with a minimum price stipulation. That usually will be placed at 5/1 or more, depending on the nature of the race and the number of runners with chances. The more automatic this process is the better it works, so I try not to overthink it. I back qualifiers to level stakes regardless of price. If I decide the horse is likely to be well backed I may add it to the list to take an early price on the next morning.The above takes anything from 20 minutes on the average Monday to maybe an hour on a busy racing day.
The next phase of prep is on days where there's Irish racing. I'll go through each Irish race in the traditional "form" sense and make an attempt to price them if I'm interested enough in each particular contest.This analysis is different- I have notes on hundreds of Irish horses based on observing their races. I have a fair idea of their individual quirks and requirements which is my edge over the crowd.  I'll start to get an idea of horses I might be interested in the following day when prices are available to me and will write down possible bets and prices to beat. I may also get ideas about in-running bets like back to lay in running or lay to back. I automate this because with the ATR delay, live in-running betting is suicide. I might back a horse at 10 SP then put in progressive lays at 5, 4, 3  and 2 or even lower if I think it might trade short and get beat. Nora Batt was my highlight for this approach this summer!
In the evening I'll see how they've priced up the overnights- I can't have a bet at that stage but I'll have  a fair idea if my target price is likely to be available the next morning.
On raceday I get the shop bets done for me soon after opening time. I like to do multiples on days when I'm backing a fair few juicy priced horses as the Lucky 15 concession (3 times the odds on a single winner) is actually quite valuable. Most of punting feels like chiselling away for small returns at times so there's always the chance of a year transforming lift if 2 or 3 click. Multiples have a bad name but they're actually a great way to get around stake limits- a trick I learned from a really good UK punter I correspond with is that if I want to back a horse ante post, I'll keep sticking it in doubles or even trebles with my daily bets in the hope that one clicks- that way I can build a really nice ante post position relatively cheaply and under the radar.
Before racing I'll have a look at the exchange and see how the markets are shaping both in Ireland and in the races with stats qualifiers. If I have a solid stats bet that's trading much bigger than my price to beat (50%+) I'll add another half stake with that price as a minimum.
If I have time to watch racing live I'll keep an eye on the live market to see if anything I gave a chance to is drifting to a price I didn't expect and I'll stick in a bet at SP with a minimum stipulation.
For me, taking live prices doesn't work- I've found my sort of horse tends to drift and return better at SP. The danger of watching markets live is that you chase prices down and accept lower than you should- I have been that soldier. It's hard to see a horse start at 6.8 and win when you wanted 7, but over time it's good business. Sometimes if there's been a non-runner or a ground change I can make a logical argument for accepting  a shorter price but mostly you're better off letting the shorteners win and backing the drifters. I have very few bets at under 4/1 these days and I've practically given up laying horses above evens- I just can't stomach losing 4 or 5 times my stake in one hit and wiping out a good day. (The real truth is that I'm terrible at it and the stats don't lie)
The decision whether to take an early price or leave it to SP on the exchange is often not easy and is something I get wrong almost every day. I try not to beat myself up about this nowadays and accept that markets are chaotic and difficult to predict- I find myself leaving more and more to SP as the upside to your expectations can be huge. Knowledge of the habits of the trainers or owners involved can help predict if the cash might arrive.
It should be obvious that my turnover is high- it's routine for me to turn over 20-30 times a normal stake in a busy day. That's not for everyone but it suits me, as it smooths returns. You need to set your stakes at a level where a blank day doesn't get to you too much.
Every bet I make goes in a spreadsheet and with the help of someone more tech savvy than myself I hope to be able to do more analysis of this going forward.
My aim on a day with an Irish card is to be able to look at the results and say that I didn't miss a findable, significantly overpriced winner. If favs go through the card, I'm happy to take my medicine.
If there were one piece of advice I could impart to do this well, it's to stop trying to back winners. That may sound perverse, but there's a powerful herd impulse to back the winner regardless of price and shout about it to your mates. It's harder to accept a lower strike rate and accept that you will have losing days, weeks and months even if you're doing everything right. You simply need to work hard to try and ensure that you make good bets, that is bets with positive expected value (look it up) and allow time to prove you right.

Beating The Machine

Most punters who make a genuine effort to win at the game go through various phases: mug punting, managing to limit losses for a while then eventually getting to the point where winning can reasonably be expected at the start of most years. At the latter stage the difficulties begin- accounts which show profit over time are restricted or closed and you become forced back to the shops. Phone calls to the traders, limited stakes and knockbacks- it grinds you down over time and takes the fun out of it.
At that point you can either spend your energy moaning about your lot on Twitter or try and find another way.
I freely admit that over my punting life, I have struggled to win on Betfair- give me access to 3 or 4 firms' early prices and betting value horses is relatively easy, beating the "machine" is a different matter. Something changed for me in 2017 though and I thought sharing what I think are the reasons might be helpful to some in a similar position.
My shop woes came to a head this year and I made a conscious decision to migrate more to Betfair and have a proper crack at it. The approach is totally different to the early price one however. Spotting overpriced horses the evening before and trying to get on before the value goes doesn't work- by the time there is enough liquidity the price you thought was value the night before may not be there any more.
The first change I implemented was a change of mindset. You need to think of Betfair as a Tote- you are playing against the crowd and it should be just as possible to beat them there as it is to win in other ways.
Secondly the method changes. I now look at the races I'm interested in for the next day and come up with minimum prices for anything from one horse to half a dozen. Then it's a case of either leaving SP bets with this minimum proviso or watching the market live and reacting to the value that's thrown up. This means that I actually have no idea what I'll end up backing until near the off and this takes a little more mental flexibility. The upside is that often horses you didn't really anticipate as bets stick out a mile as value when you've done the requisite prep.
My personal method involves either a full or partial tissue betting to 100% then adding a 50% margin in odds to build in a profit- for example a 2/1 chance would need to be 3/1+ for a bet, and 8/1 would have to be 12/1+ etc. It's important to look at reserves in Ireland as they are often not assessed as accurately. The shape of the race both in how it's run and how they might bet can change a lot if a reserve or reserves get a run.
It's also important to anticipate how the markets and the tissue might change if conditions change before or during the meeting- softening ground, a draw bias on the Flat and so on. Punters without fixed fancies are at a major advantage if they can change tack as races are run.
From taking or leaving Dundalk, for instance, I now wouldn't want to miss a meeting as there are horses with chances trading at insane prices almost every week. Staking is fairly level, but I'm inclined to have another half to full stake on horses which are double my value price or more.
All I can say is that I'm now 80% Betfair and it's paying. I hope this will remain the case- maybe I'll do a progress report at year's end.